[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet
to 12 feet, are imminent, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W,
in the coastal waters of Colombia. The gale-force wind
conditions will last until the mid-morning hours. The gale-force
wind conditions are forecast to return on Wednesday night.
Please, read the latest NWS high seas forecast from the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Guinea near 09N13W, to 06N20W and 05N22W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N22W to the Equator along 30W, to 02S36W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N
southward from 03W eastward, and from 06N southward between 14W
and 31W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 25N/26N, from Miami in Florida, to
95W in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1021 mb high
pressure center is about 60 nm off the coast of the Florida
Panhandle along 86W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible
within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front.

The current stationary front, that is reaching from southwestern
Florida to the west central Gulf of Mexico, will dissipate
through Wednesday. Weak surface ridging, building across the
northern Gulf in the wake the front, will persist through the
end of the week. It is likely that the next frontal boundary
will stall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Thursday
and Thursday night. Areas of sea fog are possible in the
northwest Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows an anticyclonic circulation
center that is in northern Colombia. This feature is spreading
upper level anticyclonic wind flow, everywhere, in the Caribbean
Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb, shows a ridge, that passes
through the Yucatan Channel to northern Colombia. The GFS model
for 700 mb shows broad and weak cyclonic wind flow.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow. One area of rainshowers covers the areas that are
from the central Caribbean Sea, about 125 nm to the south of
Jamaica and about 240 nm to the north of Colombia, curving
toward Nicaragua.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, beyond
07N78W at the coast of Colombia, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are from 12N southward, in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

Expect E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 11N to 16N between 67W and
79W.

High pressure to the north of the region will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea,
through Sunday. The wind speeds are forecast to pulse to
gale-force off the coast of Colombia, mainly during the
overnight and early-morning hours. Strong NE winds are possible
in the Windward Passage, on Wednesday night and again on Friday
night. Fresh to strong trade winds will develop in the Gulf of
Honduras on Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N67W to 30N70W, across the NW
Bahamas, to Miami in Florida.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate are from 26N northward between 45W and the
cold front.

A second cold front, in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean,
passes through 32N23W, to 26N30W, and 23N38W. A shear line
continues from 23N38W to 22N46W and 22N53W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are within 90 nm on either side of the front and shear line, and
the line that continues from 22N53W to 22N66W.

A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 32N40W. A surface ridge
extends from 33N28W, to the 1032 mb high pressure center, to
26N56W, and to 24N69W.

The current cold front, extending from 31N68W to Miami in
Florida, is supporting fresh to near gale force S to SW winds
ahead of the front to near 65W and N of 27N. The front is
forecast to weaken and reach from 28N65W to 26N72W by Wednesday
morning, and move to the E of the area on Wednesday afternoon.
Surface ridging will dominate the regional waters through
Saturday, supporting fresh to strong winds S of 22N with the
strongest winds being between the Turk and Caicos Islands and
Hispaniola.

$$
mt/ec
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