[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support
pulses of gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning
hours through the latter part of the week. Seas are forecast to
build to 8-10 ft with the strongest winds.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving off the
Florida coast this morning will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by late this evening. Strong to minimal gale force SW
winds and building seas ongoing ahead of the front north of 29N.
Winds will diminish below gale- force by this afternoon. Seas
will build to 9- 11 ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 02N32W
to 00N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-04N between 27W-
36W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 250 nm
north of the ITCZ between 40W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to near 25N87W,
then continues west as stationary to near 26N96W, offshore of
Southern Texas. No significant convection is associated with
this boundary. 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed north of the
front, off southwest Louisiana near 30N90W. Recent buoy
observations and scatterometer data show moderate to fresh
return flow over the western Gulf and gentle to moderate
northerly winds elsewhere. Seas are likely calm across the Gulf,
reaching 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary portion of the front will
dissipate over the western Gulf today. The cold front will
continue to move SE and exit the basin this afternoon. There
will be an increasing risk of marine fog in the northwest Gulf
by Wed night as southerly winds draw in warm, moist air over the
cool shelf waters. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall over
the Texas coast Thu and Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off the coast of
Colombia. See the Special Features section for details.

The high pressure now east of the Bahamas is supporting
persistent fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off
Colombia. Seas are likely 6 to 9 ft over much of this area.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the northwest Caribbean with
calm seas.

A fairly dry pattern has set up across the Caribbean, limiting
shower activity to a few training cells in the trade wind flow
north of the ABC Islands. Very little shower activity is evident
across the Windward and Leeward Islands. Little change is
expected for the forecast through the remainder of the week.

High pressure north of the region will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Sat, with winds pulsing to gale force
off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early
morning hours. Strong NE winds are possible in the Windward
Passage Wed night and again Fri night. Fresh to strong trade
winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning has been issued for Western Atlantic. See the
Special Features section for details.

A cold front extends from 32N72W to Southern Florida near West
Palm Beach. The boundary is moving across Southern Florida and
continues westward across the Gulf of Mexico. Recent
scatterometer data from 1400 UTC reveals fresh to strong NW
winds off Florida behind the front, and fresh to strong winds
ahead of the front north of 20N and west of 60W. Scattered
thunderstorms are also active in a line along the boundary
mainly north of 27N between 71W and 79W.

A surface ridge extending from 1031 mb high pressure center near
32N47W is shifting eastward ahead of the front. Fresh NE to E
winds are evident in ASCAT data on the eastern and southern edge
of this ridge, where a weak shear line is evident from 24N40W to
22N56W. The shear line is trailing the western portion of a cold
front reaching 32N29W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring
within 180 nm of the front on either side, north of 28N. In
addition to winds, squally showers are possible along this
boundary. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over much of the open Atlantic
south of 32N, with a large contribution of northerly swell,
except 8 to 12 ft in the area near the front north of 27N.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the front is
forecast to weaken and reach from 28N65W to 26N72W by Wed
morning and move E of the area Wed afternoon. Surface ridging
will dominate the regional waters through Sat, supporting fresh
to strong winds S of 22N with the strongest winds being between
the Turk and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola.

$$
Mora
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