[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure
building north of the Caribbean Sea and the typical low pressure
found over northern Colombia will support pulses of gale- force
northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia beginning tonight and continuing through the middle of
week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas
are forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the
National Hurricane Center at website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N31W
to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted south of the ITCZ between
20W-25W. Similar convection is noted from 00N-05N between 32W-
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging continues to dominate the Gulf region anchored by a 1038
mb high located over Virginia. The latest scatterometer data
reveals moderate to fresh return flow over most of the basin,
with gentle to moderate E winds in the southwest Gulf. Seas are
4 to 6 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to5 ft over the western
Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
observed.

As for the forecast: The high pressure center will shift east
through tonight ahead of a cold front expected to move into the
NW Gulf early Mon morning. The new front will stall across the
southern Gulf late Tue, then lift north and dissipate through
Wed. Looking ahead, a third front will move into the northwest
Gulf Thu morning, and reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to Tampico,
Mexico Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of
Colombia.

As of 1500 UTC: The stationary front extending from Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras has dissipated in the Caribbean Sea. A
low pressure center of 1019 mb has formed along a surface
trough in the Gulf of Honduras. This small area of convergent
low-level flow is supporting the continuation of cloudiness,
revealed in the latest visible satellite imagery, as well as
scattered to isolated showers over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
in this region range from 6 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, fresh NE
winds are noted in the northwest and central Caribbean, with
fresh trades over the eastern portion of the basin. Seas are
5 to 7 ft. High pressure north of the area is allowing dry
conditions to prevail, aside from scattered showers embedded
in the trade wind flow in the eastern Caribbean near the
Windward Islands.

As for the forecast: High pressure north of the area building
in the wake of the front will support fresh NE winds east of
80W through this morning, and across the Windward Passage and
in the lee of Cuba this evening through Mon. The pattern will
also support the overnight pulses to gale force off the coast
of Colombia tonight through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N55W southwestward to 25N72W
where the boundary transitions to stationary and continues
to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Recent scatterometer
data indicates fresh to strong northerly winds west of the
front, becoming northeasterly west of 70W. Seas are estimated
to be 7 to 10 ft in open waters in this area, reaching 11 ft
near the north-central Bahamas. Scatterometer data also
indicates fresh to strong SW winds within 120 nm east of the
front, north of 29N. Scattered showers may still be along
and within 100 nm of the front.

Farther east, a 1023 mb high is centered near 27N40W keeping
dry conditions in place for the rest of the basin. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are across the tropical Atlantic
waters south of 20N, and mainly gentle winds north of 20N.
Seas are generally 6 to 12 ft north of 20N and east of 50W.
Seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted S of 15N and west of 35W, with
4 to 6 ft seas noted elsewhere.

As for the forecast west of 65W: The cold front will move
SE across the open Atlantic into Mon, then stall and weaken
along roughly 23N across the central Bahamas through late Mon.
High pressure following the front will support fresh to strong
NE to E winds across the western Atlantic through Mon morning.
The next front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night,
reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid week.
Strong to near-gale force SW winds and building seas are
expected ahead of the front north of 29N early Tue and Tue
night.


$$
Mora
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