[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210907
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure
building north of the Caribbean Sea and the typical low pressure
found over northern Colombia will support pulses gale- force
northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia beginning tonight and continuing through the middle of
week, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas
are forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds. Please
read the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W
to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N-06N between 19W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure over Virginia to the
southwest Gulf. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer
satellite data indicated moderate to fresh NE-E winds over the
eastern half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh E-SE winds over
the northwest Gulf, with gentle to moderate E winds in the
southwest Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to
5 ft over the western Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed.

As for the forecast: The ridge extending from 1036 mb high
pressure over Virginia to the southwest Gulf will shift east today
and tonight ahead of cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf
early Mon morning. The front will stall across the southern Gulf
late Tue, then lift north and dissipate through Wed. Looking
ahead, a third front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu
morning, and reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to Tampico, Mexico Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba through Roatan to
central Honduras. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
over the northwest Caribbean near the front, mainly off Belize and
the coast of western Honduras. Recent buoy and scatterometer
satellite data indicate moderate to fresh winds west of the front
and in the lee of Cuba. The buoy data also indicates seas are
likely 5 to 8 ft west of the front. The same scatterometer swath
indicates fresh to strong winds off Colombia, where seas are
likely 7 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere
over the eastern and central Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft seas.
Regional radar indicates scattered showers in the trade wind flow
in the Atlantic waters east of the Windward Island, moving mainly
toward Martinique and Dominica, with isolated showers elsewhere
the northern Windward Islands and and the southern Leeward
Islands.

As for the forecast: The stationary front from central Cuba to
central Honduras will dissipate later today. High pressure north
of the area building in the wake of the front will support fresh
NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba
tonight into Mon. The pattern will also support overnight pulses
to gale force off the coast of Colombia Sun night through mid
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N60W southwestward to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. Recent buoy observations and earlier
scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong northerly winds west
of the front. Seas are estimated to be 7 to 10 ft in open waters
in this area. Scatterometer data also indicates fresh SW winds
within 120 nm east of the front, north of 29N.

Farther east, a ridge is analyzed east of the front, from 1024 mb
high pressure near 26N43W westward along 25N to 65W, supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic waters
south of 20N, and mainly gentle winds north of 20N. NW swell is
supporting seas of 8 to 13 ft north of 20N and east of 40W. N
swell of 6 to 9 ft is noted S of 15N and west of 35W 4 to 6 ft are
noted elsewhere.

As for the forecast west of 65W: The cold front will continue to
move southeast, then stall and weaken along roughly 23N across
the central Bahamas through late Mon. High pressure following the
front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
western Atlantic through Mon morning. The next front will move off
the NE Florida coast Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by mid week. Strong to near- gale force SW
winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front north of
29N early Tue and Tue night.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net