[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210441
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of strong high pressure
building north of the Caribbean Sea and the typical low pressure
found over northern Colombia will support gale-force northeast to
east winds within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia beginning
on Sun night and continuing through the middle of week. Seas are
forecast to build to 8-11 ft with the strongest winds. Please read
the latest NWS high seas forecast issued at the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W
to 03N30W to 01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N-06N between 18W-31W, and from
00N-03N W of 49W the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region anchored by a 1029 mb high
pressure located over northern Alabama. Latest scatterometer
data provided observations of moderate to fresh NE-E winds over
the eastern half of the Gulf, and mainly moderate E-SE winds over
the remainder of the basin. Seas are generally in the 3-5 ft
range, except in the SE Gulf where seas of 6-8 ft are observed,
highest in the Yucatan Channel.

Cold air stratocumulus clouds are mainly W of 87W and over the SE
Gulf under a NE wind flow. Low-level clouds, with possible patches
of light rain are seen across the eastern slopes of the Sierra
Madre in Mexico and over the western Gulf.

As for the forecast: High pressure currently over Alabama will
shift into the Carolinas through late Mon in the wake of a cold
front now located across the northwest Caribbean. The next cold
front will reach the NW Gulf early Mon morning, and move across
the basin through late Tue. Looking ahead, a third front will move
into the northwest Gulf Thu morning, and reach from Mobile Bay,
Alabama to Tampico, Mexico Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
at 16N86W. Scattered showers are near the southern end of the front.
Latest ASCAT data revealed fresh northerly winds in the wake of the
front, particularly just E of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. The front
is forecast to dissipate today. High pressure north of the Caribbean
Sea, building in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong
NE winds east of 80W through today, and across the Windward Passage
and in the lee of Cuba tonight into Mon. This pattern will also
support overnight pulses to gale-force off the coast of Colombia
tonight through mid week. As a result, a Gale Warning has been
issued.

Satellite-derived wind data also show fresh to strong trade winds
over the south-central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere E of the aforementioned frontal boundary.

Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
will continue to move westward across the basin producing isolated
to scattered passing showers. An area of low level clouds with
possible light showers is now affecting the Lesser Antilles, but
mainly S of Guadeloupe.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N65W southwestward to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. Scatterometer data show the wind shift
associated with the front, and mainly fresh northerly winds behind
it. An area of fresh to strong NE winds is noted just behind the
front between Andros Island in the Bahamas, SE Florida and the
Florida Keys, resulting in windy and hazardous marine conditions
this Sun. Fresh SW winds are also noted ahead of the front but
mainly N of 30N. Another cold front crosses the Canary Islands
with fresh to strong winds on either side of the front N of 27N.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
of a 1024 mb high pressure located near 26N43W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are observed per scatterometer passes around the southern
periphery of this system between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles.

As with the forecast regarding the western Atlantic cold front:
It will move SE across the open Atlantic through today, and begin
to stall and weaken along roughly 23N across the central Bahamas
through late Mon. High pressure following the front will support
fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Atlantic through
Mon morning. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast
Mon night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by mid
week. Strong to near-gale force SW winds and building seas are
expected ahead of the front north of 29N early Tue and Tue night.

$$
GR
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