[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC SAT FEB 20 2021

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. GALES WILL RETURN AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID-WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
08N13W TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N17W TO 02N30W TO
01S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N- 08N BETWEEN THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 10W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
00N-06N BETWEEN 17W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING WITHIN 250 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF BRAZIL.

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
YESTERDAY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1500 UTC REVEALS FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS. OVER
THE WESTERN GULF, WINDS TRANSITION FROM NE-E BECOMING MODERATE
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF NEAR THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE, WINDS MAY BE STRONGER DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH LATE MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
EARLY MON MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. LOOKING
AHEAD, A THIRD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST GULF BY WED
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

AS OF 1500 UTC: THE COLD FRONT REACHING FROM WEST-CENTRAL CUBA TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME STATIONARY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1400
UTC INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT, WITHIN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS, WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6 TO 9 FT. HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE INDICATED TO BE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
ARE NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS
FRESH TRADES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN, BECOMING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO COLOMBIA. A SHIP OFFSHORE OF NE
COLOMBIA NEAR 13N76W REPORTED 30 KT WINDS, AND A BUOY OBSERVATION
FROM CLOSE BY ESTIMATED SEAS TO BE AS HIGH AS 11 FT.

FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS EAST OF 80W INTO SUN, WITH OVERNIGHT PULSES TO GALE
FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WEST OF 65W, A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W THROUGH THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WHERE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
STATIONARY. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH N-NW WINDS
AND SEAS TO 8 FT WEST OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 26N.
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS. SEAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY RANGE
FROM 6-9 FT.

FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM BERMUDA
TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO STALL AND WEAKEN
ALONG ROUGHLY 23N ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE MON. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT, REACHING
FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MID-WEEK. STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF 28N TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

FARTHER EAST, 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N43W.
THE HIGH IS KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TRADES TO OCCUR ABOVE
20N WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-7 FT. SOUTH OF 20N, WINDS BECOME
FRESH WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF 40W.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
25N32W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTH
OF 29N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 15 FT SEAS WITH NW SWELL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 40W.

$$
MORA
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