[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
05N20W, crossing the Equator along 24W, curving to 02S28W, and
to 02S33W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from
02N to 07N between 14W and 19W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N75W, to
Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to NW Cuba, to Belize.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong are in the waters that are between the Bahamas and the
cold front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb Texas high pressure
center that is near 30N97.5W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

The current cold front, from near Naples in Florida to NW Cuba,
will move SE and exit the basin overnight. Reinforcing cold air
behind the front will continue to support strong northerly winds
behind the front and south of 26N through midnight. High
pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico into Sunday. The next
cold front will move into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico early
on Monday morning, and move across the basin through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow, with a Colombia-to-Nicaragua/Honduras/El Salvador
ridge. The GFS model for 500 mb, shows broad cyclonic wind flow,
with a NW Venezuela cyclonic circulation center. The GFS model
for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow, from Nicaragua eastward,
and from 16N northward from 80W eastward. Anticyclonic wind flow
covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea at 700 mb.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, except in the area of the NW Cuba-to-Belize cold front.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow. Isolated to widely scattered moderate is in the
waters that are adjacent to the Caribbean Sea side of SE Cuba.

A surface trough is along 11N72W in NW Venezuela, beyond the
border of Colombia and Panama, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and possible rainshowers, are from 14N southward from 76W
westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Expect E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in NW to N swell, from 11N to 17N
between 65W and 81W.

Gale-force wind conditions are possible, on each night from
Sunday night through Wednesday night of the next week, from 11N
to 15N between 72W and 80W including in the Colombia Basin.
Expect overnight pulses to gale-force, off the coast of
Colombia. The current cold front, from the western tip of Cuba
to central Belize, will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras on Saturday, before dissipating on Sunday. High
pressure, building in the wake of the current front that is to
the north of the area, will support fresh to strong NE winds, to
the east of 80W, late on Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N75W, to Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, to NW Cuba, to Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the east and
southeast of the cold front.

A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 29N55W. A surface ridge
extends from 24N17W, to 23N36W, 29N48W, through the 1026 mb high
pressure center, to 27N62W, and to the Bahamas near 22N74W.

The current cold front from 31N77W to near West Palm Beach in
Florida will reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and
western Cuba by Saturday afternoon, then begin to move slowly SE
and weaken across central Cuba to the central Bahamas to the
central Atlantic through late Monday. High pressure following
the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the
western Atlantic Ocean, from Saturday night through Monday
morning. The next front will move off the NE Florida coast on
Monday night, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
Tuesday night.

$$
mt/ec
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net