[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 192354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the border of Sierra Leone
and Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W to
02N39W and to 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection in clusters
are occurring from 00N-07N between 13W-23W, also within 300 nm
south of the ITCZ between 23W-30W, within 240 nm south of the
ITCZ between 30W-39W and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between
30W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ
within 60 nm of 04N44W and west of the ITCZ within 30 nm of line
from 01N46W to the coast of Brazil at 01N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Sarasota, Florida southwestward to
inland the eastern section of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W
and to far northeastern Guatemala near 17N89W. NWS Doppler Radar
and GOES-16 satellite imagery show a narrow line of scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the front. The line is moving
northeastward. Ahead of the front, small bands of scattered
showers and thunderstorms, also moving to the northeast, are
seen over the far southern Gulf waters extending northeastward to
the interior of southwest Florida. Behind the front, scattered
showers are moving quickly northeastward east of 86W. Latest
GOES-16 visible imagery depicts broken to overcast cold-air
stratocumulus type clouds covering just about the entire basin
southeast of a line from Apalachee Bay to 28N90W to 28N96W. These
clouds denote the cold air advection that is taking place in the
wake of the aforementioned cold front. Patches of rain are
possible south of 23N and west of 91W. Isolated light showers are
possible elsewhere south of 26N and west of 86W. Both afternoon
ASCAT data and recent buoy reports show strong northerly winds
south of 26N. Latest buoy observations reveal waveheights of
10-14 ft south of 26N and west of 87W. Wave heights of 8-11 ft
are present south of 26N and east of 87W as were seen in an
altimeter pass from this afternoon. Wave heights north of 26N are
in the 6-8 ft range, except for lower wave heights of 4-6 ft
west of 94W.

As for the forecast, the cold front will exit the southeastern
Gulf tonight. The cold air mass behind the front will continue to
support strong northerly winds behind the front and south of 26N
through midnight. High pressure will dominate the Gulf region
through Sun. The next cold front will move into the northwest
Gulf early Mon morning, and move across the rest of the Gulf
through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest ASCAT data passes reveal fresh to strong trade winds
over the eastern and central sections of the Caribbean. Wave
heights there are in the 6-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh
southeast winds are north of Honduras, with moderate SE winds
and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. No
significant convection is observed across the basin other than
a few fast-moving trade wind showers across the sea east of
70W and to the north of 14N west of  70W.

As for the forecast, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico cold front
will move through the Yucatan Channel and into the northwestern
Caribbean tonight, then become stationary from central Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sat night and dissipate Sun. High
pressure building in the wake of the front north of the area will
support fresh to strong northeast winds east of 80W late Sun
night, and overnight pulses to gale force off the coast of
Colombia Sun night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 21Z, a cold front extends from near 32N78W to inland
Florida near Ormond Beach. Both satellite imagery and NWS Doppler
radar show scattered show an intensifying line of numerous
thunderstorms along and within 30 nm east of the front north
of 28N. Frequent lightning is being observed with activity as
it races eastward. This activity is also capable of producing
strong gusty winds to near gale force. Large areas of rain with
embedded scattered showers, some possibly heavy, are moving
quickly northeastward behind the front as atmospheric from an
upper-level trough lagging behind is helping to sustain this
activity. Latest ASCAT data shows fresh to strong southerly winds
over the waters southeast of the front northwest of a line from
32N74W to 27N80W. Wave heights with these winds are in the 6-9 ft
range. High pressure ridging extends from a 1026 mb high near
29N56W west-southwest to the central Bahamas near 25N76W. Another
ridge extends from this high center east- southeast to near
25N34W. Gentle winds are near the ridge axis, except for moderate
winds in the Bahamas. Fresh to strong trade winds are from 07N-
24N between 46W-70W, with wave heights in the 6-9 ft range. Over
the eastern Atlantic, a cold front enters the area north of the
ridge through near 32N26W to near 28N37W. Fresh to strong west to
northwest winds are present from 29N-32N between 20W-38W.
Northerly swell is propagating into the waters north of 27N, east
of 45W, with seas in the 9-13 ft range.

As for the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front will
will reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas and western
Cuba by Sat afternoon, then begin to move slowly SE and weaken
across central Cuba to the central Bahamas to the central
Atlantic through late Mon. High pressure following the front will
support fresh to strong northeast to east winds across the
western Atlantic Sat night through Mon morning. The next cold
front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night,
reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue night
and begin to weaken some over the central Atlantic Wed and Wed
night.

$$
Aguirre
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