[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
high pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over
northern Colombia will tighten each night through Thu allowing
for winds offshore of northern Colombia to increase to minimal
gale force after sunset. These winds will diminish just after
sunrise. Seas will build to around 11-12 ft with strongest winds.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further Details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters into the eastern Atlantic near 10N14W
to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 140 nm north
of the ITCZ between 32W to the coast of Brazil

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across the eastern Gulf from 29N83W to
23N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Surface
ridging is building across the basin in the wake of the front.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds
prevailing across the area. Seas in the western Gulf are analyzed
to be 8-11 ft, while 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

Winds and seas will diminish today as the front moves away.
Another low pressure system will track east-northeastward across
the NW Gulf on Wed dragging a strong cold front across the western
Gulf. This front is expected to reach from near Apalachicola,
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thu, and exit the Gulf
on Fri. Gale conditions will be possible behind this front off
Veracruz on Thu. Strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the
front. Fresh to strong winds northeast winds will be over the
southeastern Gulf Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast
of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong winds
across the south central Caribbean outside of the gale area, while
moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere. High pressure to
the north of the area is allowing for dry conditions to prevail
across most of the basin. The exception is in the NW Caribbean
where scattered showers are moving across Cuba towards the Florida
Straits. Seas in the central and eastern Caribbean are in the 6-9
ft, and 3-5 ft seas prevail in the western part of the basin.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through Thu. Southeast winds will increase in the Gulf of
Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front approaches
from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to move
across western Caribbean on Fri/Sat, then becomes stationary on
Sat night. Strong N winds will follow the front. Large north swell
will continue to affect the tropical N Atlantic waters through
Thu, then begin to subside through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Radar imagery depicts a line of thunderstorms stretching from
Palm Coast, FL to 32N79W and continues north of our area, ahead of
a cold front that currently extends across northern Florida.
Fresh to strong winds prevail over the west Atlantic ahead of this
front.

Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N59W is
keeping fair weather conditions in place. Earlier scatterometer
data depicted moderate to locally fresh return flow around the
high across the waters west of 65W, except fresh to locally strong
south of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-8 ft west of 55W and 8-12 ft to
the east.

High pressure over the region will support fresh to
strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night. Fresh to
strong southerly winds have developed east of northern Florida
ahead of a cold front that will move through the area today. The
front will become stationary tonight from near 31N74W to West
Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a warm front Wed and
dissipate Wed night. Winds will increase over the western
waters beginning on Thu as the next cold front moves across the
Gulf of Mexico. The front will move east of Florida early on Fri,
and extend from near 31N71W to the central Bahamas and to
central Cuba late on Fri, and from 28N65W to near Windward
Passage Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this
front.

$$
ERA
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