[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152143
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Scatterometer data and surface
observations show gale force winds persisting in the western Gulf
of Mexico behind and Arctic cold front. The cold front stretches
from 1005 mb low pressure near the western Florida Panhandle/
Alabama border near 30N87W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W.
Large seas around 17 ft have recently been reported in the SW Gulf
at NDBC buoy 42055, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the
waters west of the front. The gale force winds are forecast to
diminish to below gale force by sunset with the large seas
gradually subsiding.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure northeast of the basin and low pressure over northern
Colombia will tighten tonight allowing for winds offshore of
northern Colombia to increase to minimal gale force after sunset.
These winds will diminish just after sunrise Tue, then will pulse
again Tue evening until around sunrise Wed, with similar
conditions possible Wed evening into early Thu. Seas will build to
around 11-12 ft with these winds.

See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both gale warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the eastern Atlantic Ocean off the
coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from
05N21W to near the coast of Brazil at 02S45W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-06N between
25W-37W, and from 03S-03N between 38W-48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N-07N between 08W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning
in effect in the Gulf of Mexico.

An Arctic cold front stretches from 1005 mb low pressure near the
western Florida Panhandle/Alabama border near 30N87W to the Bay
of Campeche near 18N93W. A warm front extends from the low
eastward along 30N across the northern Florida Peninsula. Fresh to
strong NW-N winds surround the area of gale force winds behind
the front as described above. Fresh to strong southerly flow is
occurring north of 24N and ahead of the front. A squall line with
intense thunderstorms is noted north of 24N within about 45 nm
ahead of the cold front. Seas are 3-6 ft ahead of the cold front.
Additional convection has developed over the northwest Caribbean
Sea and is propagating northward across western Cuba toward the
Florida Keys. Freezing rain, light snow, and freezing spray were
reported earlier at northwest Gulf coastal locations.

For the forecast, winds will diminish tonight through Tue as the
cold front begins to weaken as it reaches the far southeastern
Gulf Tue. It is expected to become stationary, before lifting back
north as a warm front Tue night and Wed. Another low pressure
system will track east-northeastward across the NW Gulf on Wed
and Wed night dragging a strong cold front across the western
Gulf. This cold front is expected to reach from near Apalachicola,
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Thu, and exit the Gulf
on Fri. Gale conditions will be possible behind this front off
Veracruz on Thu. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are
possible ahead of this front. Fresh to strong winds northeast
winds will be over the southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast
of Colombia.

High pressure of 1026 mb is centered northeast of the basin near
28N59W, while 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed over northern
Colombia near 10N75W. Mainly fresh to locally strong trades
dominate the central and eastern Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
E-SE flow in the western Caribbean, except light and variable
winds in the southwest Caribbean. Seas are mainly 6-9 ft across
the central and eastern Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing in the
northwest Caribbean and propagating northward across western Cuba.
Isolated showers on the trades can be found elsewhere, except more
scattered in the northeast Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean through Thu. SE winds will increase in the Gulf of
Honduras from Wed night into Thu as a strong cold front approaches
from the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to move
across western Cuba, the Yucatan Channel and the northeast part of
the Yucatan Peninsula early on Fri and over the northwestern
Caribbean during the rest of Fri and through Sat as it slows down
and becomes stationary into Sat night. It will be followed by
strong northerly winds. Large north swell will continue to affect
the tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu, then begin to subside
Thu night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front extends from 32N77W to near Jacksonville, Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing over
northeast Florida near the boundary. Convection is also moving
across the Straits of Florida toward the Florida Keys from western
Cuba. High pressure of 1026 mb is near 28N58W with 1025 mb high
pressure near 28N54W. Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly
moderate to locally fresh return flow around the high pressures
across the waters west of 65W, except fresh to locally strong
south of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft north of 22N in remnant NE-E
swell, and 5-8 ft south of 22N. To the east, a frontal trough
reaches from 32N21W to 26N37W. A 1023 mb high is north of the
frontal trough near 30N34W, while a stationary front is analyzed
just north of the high along 31N/32N. Scattered showers are noted
north of 24N between 22W-37W. Mainly gentle to moderate variable
winds prevail around the high pressure areas north of 24N, with
moderate to fresh trades dominating south of 24N. Seas of 8-12 ft
in northerly swell dominate the open Atlantic waters, except 5-8
ft north of 22N between 50W-65W.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the region will support
fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola through Thu night. Fresh
to strong southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida
tonight through Tue ahead of a cold front that will move east of
Florida on Tue. The front will become stationary Tue night from
near 31N74W to West Palm Beach, Florida, then lift northward as a
warm front Wed and dissipate Wed night. Scattered thunderstorms,
some possibly strong with gusty winds, along a squall line are
expected ahead of the front tonight. Winds will increase over the
western waters, including the waters between the southeastern
Bahamas and Hispaniola beginning on Thu as a cold front moves
across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move east of Florida
early on Fri, and extend from near 31N71W to the central Bahamas
and to central Cuba late on Fri, and from near 28N65W to near
Windward Passage Sat and Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will follow this front.

$$
Lewitsky
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