[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front with attendant
low pressure will move off the coast of Texas late Sun night or
early Mon. This front will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula by early Tue, then dissipate Tue night. Gale
force northerly winds of 35-40 kt are expected in the western
Gulf late Sun night through Monday, to the west of the low pressure,
and behind the front. Seas will build up to 13 or 14 ft. A light
wintry mix of precipitation could reach the coastline of Texas and
western Louisiana late Sun night into Mon. Winds and seas will
diminish across the region on Tue. Please, see the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N18W to 01N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within about 120 nm N of the axis
between 24W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see
the Special Features section for details.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to low pres
1008 mb near 25N92W to Veracruz Mexico. Fresh northerly winds
prevail west of the front. A wide band of showers, with embedded
thunderstorms, is ahead of the front, forecast to weaken through
Sun night. Cold air has penetrated into the Sierra Madre Mountains
as depicted by rather uniform stratus cloud cover. A stationary
front is analyzed in that region.

On a side note, the GFS and ECWMF global models indicate strong
westerly winds east of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern
Mexico late this weekend and early next week. These winds could
reach gale force and appear to be related to a strong mid-level
trough and high terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea is promoting
fresh to locally strong easterly winds over the central Caribbean
as noted per latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range within this area of winds based on a recent altimeter pass.
Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to
move across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. These patches of moisture are currently moving northward
across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba under a moderate to
fresh SE wind flow.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed
night. By the middle of next week, winds off Colombia will pulse
to near gale force at night. Large north swell will continue to
affect the tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser
Antilles, through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N79W to NE Florida. Showers and
tstms are noted S of the front affecting N-central Florida. Fresh
S to SW winds are seen S of the frontal boundary per recent
satellite-derived wind data. This front will lift north of the area
Sun night. High pressure over the western Atlantic will support
fresh to occasionally strong winds north of Hispaniola through
Wed. Fresh to strong S winds are expected east of northern Florida
Mon night and Tue ahead of a weak cold front that will move off
Florida late Tue.

A couple of fronts are over the central Atlantic. One stretches
from 31N41W to 28N51W followed by the second one that runs from
31N46W to 29N53W to 31N57W. These front will merge by tonight.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge with the main high pressure center of 1027
mb located near 28N28W. Mainly fresh trade winds are noted along
the southern periphery of the ridge.

Large north swell will continue to affect the tropical north
Atlantic waters, east of the Lesser Antilles, through the middle
of next week.

$$
GR
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