[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121653
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 07N12W to
06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 00N32W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 00N-03N between
19W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving slowly southeastward across the Gulf of
Mexico, and currently extends from Panama City, Florida to near
Poza Rica, Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the
front. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are occurring in
association with the frontal boundary. Winds and seas could be
higher near tstms. South and east of the front, light to moderate
SE winds prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also
developing ahead of the front in a SE moist flow. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front through
tonight, with building seas to 10 or 11 ft.

The cold front will reach from Tallahassee, Florida to the Bay of
Campeche tonight, then stall and weaken from the Florida Big Bend
to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat night. A weak low may develop along
the frontal boundary. By Sun night, a low pressure system is
forecast to develop near Brownsville, Texas dragging a new and
strong cold front across the western Gulf. The low will move
towards SE Louisiana on Mon. Gale force winds are expected behind
the front, forecast to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the
Yucatan Peninsula on Tue. Strong high pressure will build southward
across Texas and the western Gulf in the wake of the front.

On a side note, the GFS model indicates strong westerly winds E
of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico late this
weekend and early next week. These winds could reach gale force
and appear to be related to a strong mid-level trough and high
terrain in that region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data provided observations of near-gale
force winds near the northern coast of Colombia, and fresh to
strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean, where seas
are in the 7-11 ft range. Elsewhere, trade winds are moderate to
fresh. Dry air in the mid to upper-levels exists across much of
the region, which is supporting generally fair weather. However,
as is typical, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
is currently moving across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are
now affecting Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands producing
scattered to numerous showers as noted by the San Juan Doppler
radar.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue night.
Fresh to locally strong SE winds are possible in the Gulf of
Honduras through Sat morning. Large north swell will affect the
tropical N Atlantic waters through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Generally quiet weather prevails across the western Atlantic under
the influence of a ridge. Farther east, a cold front enters the
forecast region near 31N34W and extends to 28N46W. The most recent
scatterometer pass shows very clear the wind shift associated with
the front. A narrow line of showers is occurring along the front.
Otherwise, a ridge, anchored on a 1025 mb high pressure located
near 28N25W, dominates the rest of the basin. Fresh to locally
strong trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge.

Long period northerly swell is propagating across much of the
waters E of 60W, causing seas of 9 to 13 ft N of 15N and E of 50W.
To the south and west of this area of swell, seas are in the 6 to
9 ft range.

A weak cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat night. The
front will stall off the Georgia and N Florida coast on Sun then
lift north of the area Sun night. High pressure over the region
will support fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola
through Sun night. A weak cold front will move off Florida on Tue.

$$
GR
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