[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean through Fri. Winds will pulse to gale force within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Near
gale- force winds are also expected Wed night. Seas will build to
12 ft with the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High
Seas Forecast product in the following website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 03.5N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N17W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-05N and East
of 11W and scattered moderate isolated strong convection from
00N-04N between 17W-30W. Scattered showers are also noted north
Of the ITCZ between 17W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from St. Petersburg, Florida near
26N82W to 26N87W, where begins to transition to a warm front and
extends to the coast of Louisiana. Convection previously
associated with this front has generally diminished, although
widely scattered light showers persist across the Central Gulf.
North of the frontal boundary, moderate to locally fresh E winds
prevail between 83W and 87W, and S-SE moderate to fresh in the
western Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail south of the
front near the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is observed west
of the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W To 19N91W.

The front will continue to lift N as a warm front through late
tonight. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the
northern Gulf through mid week. Looking ahead, another front
will move off the Texas coast by late Thu and reach from the
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico, Fri evening where it
will stall through Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds
will affect the far western Gulf Fri into Fri
night.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Latest scatterometer data this evening revealed fresh to strong
E trades dominating the central Caribbean, while moderate to
fresh prevail in the eastern Caribbean. Light and gentle winds
are noted North of 17N near Jamaica to the Cuban coast. Seas of 8
to 10 ft can be found in the central Caribbean while 3 to 6 ft are
observed in the eastern and western Caribbean. Dry conditions
prevail, aside from isolated fast moving showers embedded in the
trade wind flow in the NE Caribbean.

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds over the central and portions of the
SW Caribbean through Sat night. Gales will pulse nightly through
Wed night off the coast of Colombia, with near gale conditions
prevailing the rest of the week. Fresh to locally strong winds
will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N60W to 28N65W, then stalls to near
27N80W. A band of thunderstorms stretches along the frontal
boundary between 75W-79W. South of the front, moderate E to SE
winds are occurring, with fresh NE-E winds north the stationary
front E of 65W. High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 30N36W
dominates much of the rest of the basin, producing moderate
tradewinds across the tropics south of 23N. Seas across the
tradewind belt are running 7 to 9 ft in north swell.

A stationary front will lift north as a warm front overnight
and be north of the area Tue. The front will transition back to a
cold front N of the area and its tail will move across the
northern waters Tue night through Wed early evening. Strong high
pressure northeast of the area will support fresh to strong winds
between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos as well as in the
approaches of the Windward Passage into Fri.

$$
Torres
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