[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will pulse
every night through at least mid-week as a tight pressure
gradient between lower pressure over South America and high
pressure building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds.
Seas will continue to range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast product in the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 07N12W
to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
monsoon trough from 03N-11N and east of 16W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted along the ITCZ from 00N-04N between
21W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Two areas of low pressure are analyzed over the northern Gulf. A
1008 mb low centered near 29N88W and to the east a 1009 mb low
is centered near 28N91W. A stationary front extends across the
Florida Peninsula to near 28N91W. A cold front extends SW from
the 1009 mb low to 23N96W. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle winds across the western Gulf, while moderate to fresh
winds are noted over the eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan
Channel. Seas range 5-6 ft in the north-central Gulf and 2-3 ft
in the southern Gulf.

In the forecast, a low pressure is forming off the coast of
Louisiana. As the low tracks NE and inland, the front will
evolve into a cold front Sun. By late Sun, the cold front will
stall from near Fort Myers, Florida, to near Veracruz, Mexico.
The front will then lift north as a warm front Mon and move
north of the area Mon night. Moist southerly flow may allow
areas of fog across the northwest and north central Gulf early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features Section above for details on pulsing
gale conditions N of Colombia.

High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place
with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the
central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with
upwards of 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 9-11 ft in the
south-central portions of the basin.

High pressure building north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to gale
force nightly into Mon night off the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from
31N72W to 28N80W. Scattered showers are noted along and south
of the front north of 28N between 70W-80W. Gentle to moderate
N-NE winds behind the front with light to gentle southerly winds
south of the front. In the central Atlantic, the remnants of a
stationary front extends N-S as a surface trough from 30N56W to
23N60W. High pressure ridging extends across the rest of the
basin anchored by a 1031 mb high near 32N35W. Seas range 4-6 ft
in the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic.

A weak frontal boundary will lift north of the area tonight,
head of a cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida
early Sun. Expect strong SW winds ahead of the second front in
the waters north of 28N into Sun. This front will move southeast
then stall from near Bermuda to around Miami, Florida, Mon, then
lift north of the region Tue.

$$
MTorres
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