[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will pulse
every night through at least mid-week as a tight pressure
gradient between lower pressure over South America and high
pressure building toward the NE Caribbean enhances trade winds.
Seas will continue to range 8-12 ft. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast product in the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 09N13W
to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
monsoon trough from 00N-10N between 10W-20W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted along the ITCZ from 00N-05N between
40W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low has entered the northwest Gulf, currently centered
near 28N95W. A cold front extends SW from the low to 25N97W,
while a stationary front is analyzed from the low to 29N83W.
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the
western Gulf, while moderate to fresh winds are noted over the
eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas range 3-6 ft
with upwards of 7 ft in the north-central Gulf.

The front will move northward as a warm front this evening,
ahead of a cold front that currently extends across the
northwest Gulf. By late Sun, the cold front will stall from near
Fort Myers, Florida, to the eastern Bay of Campeche, then lift
northward as a warm front Mon and move north of the area Mon
night. Moist southerly flow may allow areas of fog across the
northwest and north central Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features Section above for details on pulsing
gale conditions N of Colombia.

High pressure to the north is keeping dry conditions in place
with generally fresh to strong trades prevailing through the
central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas range from 4-6 ft with
upwards of 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 9-13 ft in the
south-central portions of the basin.

High pressure building north of the Caribbean will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south central
Caribbean into the middle of next mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from
31N75W to 29N81W. Scattered showers are noted along and south
of the front from 28N-31N between 75W-81W. Gentle to moderate
N-NE winds behind the front with light to gentle southerly winds
south of the front. In the central Atlantic, the remnants of a
stationary front extends N-S as a surface trough from 30N57W to
19N60W. High pressure ridging extends across the rest of the
basin anchored by a 1029 mb high near 33N36W. Seas range 3-6 ft
in the western Atlantic and 8-11 ft in the central Atlantic.

The frontal boundary over the west Atlantic will lift north of
the area this evening, ahead of a cold front moving off the
coast of northeast Florida by early Sun. Expect strong SW winds
ahead of this new front over the waters north of 28N early Sun.
The front will move southeast then stall from near Bermuda to
around Fort Lauderdale, Florida early next week, then gradually
lift north of the region through mid week.

$$
ERA
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