[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 03 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

... ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 31N61W 20N72W. Expect gale-force SW-to-W
winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 20 feet, N of
27N W of the cold front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 08N13W, to 07N18W, and to 05N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N22W, to 02N30W, 01N40W, and to 01N45W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N
southward from 45W eastward. Rainshowers are possible,
elsewhere, from 17N southward from 45W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge extends from an eastern Arkansas 1025 mb
high pressure center, through Louisiana, to the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, across the southern U.S. that extends into the
Gulf of Mexico, will shift eastward through Thursday. The high
pressure moving eastward will be in advance of a cold front that
will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early on Friday
morning. The front will stall from the Big Bend of Florida to
Brownsville Texas on Friday afternoon, then weaken and drift
northward though Saturday night. Fresh to locally strong
southerly winds are expected in advance of the front on Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 25N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
the northern sections of Haiti, to the eastern coast of Jamaica,
to the central coast of Nicaragua in the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 75 nm to the NW of
the front, and within 120 nm to the south and southeast of the
front, from 79W westward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow, and
higher surface pressures, are building into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, to the northwest of the cold front.

A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, beyond
the border of Costa Rica and Panama, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N
southward from 70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The current cold front, stretching from near the Windward
Passage past Jamaica to the coast of Nicaragua, will stall and
weaken from Hispaniola to Costa Rica by Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure building north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea from Thursday
night through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N61W to 25N65W, across the
northern sections of Haiti, to the eastern coast of Jamaica, to
the central coast of Nicaragua in the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
75 nm to the northwest of the front, and within 200 nm to the
southeast of the front, from Hispaniola northeastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
to the west of the cold front.

A dissipating cold front passes through 32N15W, to 29N20W
25N30W, and to 25N44W. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate is within 240 nm to the east and southeast of
the front from 30W eastward, and within 240 nm to 540 to the
southeast and south of the front between 30W and 50W.

The current strong cold front will reach from 24N65W to the
Dominican Republic on Wednesday. The front will stall and weaken
in the SE waters on Thursday. Gale-force winds are noted north
of 27N on either side of the front. Reinforcing cold air will
maintain near-gale to gale-force conditions through Wednesday,
with winds diminishing on Thursday. Long-period northerly swell
in the wake of the front will propagate across the forecast
waters to the Caribbean Sea passages through Thursday.

$$
mt/dm
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