[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N71W to
central Cuba near 22N78W. A Monday evening ASCAT pass reveals
that gale force winds are occurring on both sides of the front.
West of the front, W winds of 30-35 kt prevail from 26N-30N
between 76W-80W. The front will continue to move east, reaching
from 32N65W to E Cuba by this afternoon and from 32N60W to the
Dominican Republic by Wed afternoon. Gale-force S to SW winds
will continue ahead of this front north of 27N today through Wed
morning. Near gale to gale W to NW winds will continue behind the
front through this afternoon. Seas associated with the front are
12-15 ft, building to 15-20 ft later today and Wed. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and continues to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N21W to 03N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 04.5N-07N between 12W-20W, and
from 00N-06N between 29W-39W. Scattered showers are near the
coast of Brazil from 03S-02N between 47W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends over the western Gulf of Mexico from 1029
mb high pressure centered over southeast Oklahoma. To the east
over the Atlantic, a 999 mb storm force low is centered near
35N71W. In between the low and high pressure, strong to locally
near gale force NW to N winds cover the eastern half of the Gulf
of Mexico, east of 90W, as indicated in a recent ASCAT pass.
Winds of 25 to 30 kt and seas of 10 to 12 ft have recently been
reported from several buoys in the eastern Gulf of Mexico around
0200 UTC. Moderate to fresh N winds are elsewhere, except gentle
in the far west-central Gulf near the coast of south Texas and NE
Mexico. No convection is occurring as deep-layer dry air supports
fair weather across the basin.

Fresh to strong N to NW winds will prevail across the eastern
half of the Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche through this morning.
These winds will gradually diminish through this evening as the
high pressure over SE Oklahoma shifts east. Southerly flow will
then return with seas building over the W Gulf ahead of the next
cold front, which will reach the Texas coast Thu night. The front
will move across the NW and north-central Gulf Fri and Fri night
followed by fresh northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends over the NW Caribbean from central Cuba near
22N78W to the N coast of Honduras near 16N86.5W. Isolated showers
are near and just ahead of the front between the north coast of
Honduras and the Cayman Islands. Scattered tstorms are seen well
ahead of the front, near the Windward Passage. A Monday evening
ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean east of
75W, except for strong off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate winds are between the front and 75W. Fresh NW to N winds
are NW of the front. Seas of 5 to 8 feet are present behind the
front in the NW Caribbean, except 7 to 9 ft in the Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds over the NW Caribbean
behind the front will shift to the far SW Caribbean this evening,
reaching near gale force speeds along the coast of Nicaragua.
Winds will start to diminish in the SW Caribbean Wed morning as
the front stalls from Hispaniola to Costa Rica before dissipating
Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trade winds in the southern
Caribbean will expand to the north-central basin and the Windward
Passage Thu and then prevail through Sat night. The long-period N
swell that has been experienced over the NE Caribbean passages
and the Tropical N Atlantic for the past several days will start
to subside today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for western Atlantic waters through
Wed morning. Please see the Special Features section above for
details.

As of 02/0300 UTC, the strong cold front associated with the Gale
Warning extends from 32N71W to central Cuba near 22N78W.
Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection
along and within 270 nm SE of the front, from 23N-32N between
64W-74W. A Monday evening ASCAT pass shows strong to gale force S
to SW winds in the same area ahead of the front, north of 25N.
Behind the front, the ASCAT data show near gale to gale force W
to NW winds extending to the east coast of Florida from the Keys
to Jacksonville Beach.

The strong cold front will progress eastward across the W
Atlantic, reaching from near 32N66W to the Windward Passage this
afternoon, and from 32N60W to the Dominican Republic Wed
afternoon. The front will then stall before dissipating on Thu.
Gale force southerly winds ahead of this front will shift
eastward with the front through early Wed. Gale force W to NW
winds behind the front will diminish to below gale by late this
afternoon. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front
will propagate through the forecast waters through mid-week,
combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell
will begin to subside Thu through Fri night.

Farther east, a 1027 mb high is near 32N51W. A weak cold front
extends from 32N30W to 25N47W, stationary to 25N56W, with no
significant winds or convection. The front will dissipate by
Wed. Fresh to locally strong trades prevail across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean from 06N-22N. A recent altimeter pass shows seas
of 10 to 11 feet from 20N-30N between 20W-25W. Farther west,
seas are likely in the 12 to 15 ft range from 25N-31N between
27W-37W due to residual swell.

$$
Hagen
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