[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.Atlantic Gale Warning...
A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 984 mb low
pressure SE of Nova Scotia near 38N57W, passing near Bermuda to
the S Carolina coast. Near-gale to gale winds have already
developed NE of Bermuda near 34N60W. As this cold front digs
southward tonight through Monday, the southern extent of these
winds will also shift southward to near 29N51W by early Mon
evening. Rough seas of 18 to 20 ft are also expected to accompany
these winds. Both winds and seas should begin to subside Tue
morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of a monsoon trough is triggering scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Guinea coasts from 05N
to 12N. Farther S, an ITCZ extends from 04N20W to N of Brazil near
03N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident from 01N to 06N between 20W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1020 mb high
over Tampa, Florida to central Mexico. This feature is supporting
light to gentle winds and 2 to 3-ft seas over the E and central Gulf.
Moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
dominate the W Gulf, including the W Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the high will support moderate to fresh winds
across the central and W Gulf through mid week. As the high shifts
eastward, it will allow gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin Thu. Looking ahead, SE to S
winds may increase over the W Gulf by late Fri as low pressure
moves into the Central Plains.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers over the NW
Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and NE Yucatan
Peninsula. A trade-wind disturbance is producing similar
conditions to the Leeward Islands, which will spread to the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Mon afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure
near Florida and the Bahamas will continue to support NE to ENE
trade-wind flow for the entire basin. Moderate to fresh trades
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found over the S central basin, N of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail
for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will maintain moderate to fresh
winds across the Caribbean into Tue, with strong winds pulsing off
Colombia mainly at night. This high will move eastward into the
W Atlantic and strengthen mid to late week, support fresh to
strong winds over parts of the central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras by mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning issued
for the central Atlantic.

A surface trough near 27N55W is generating scattered moderate
convection from 25N to 30N between 50W and 60W. Convergent
westerly winds S of a cold front near Bermuda are creating
similar conditions N of 29N between 60W and 77W. A trade-wind
disturbance is causing scattered showers E of the Leeward Islands
from 14N to 21N between 50W and 53W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

Gradient is tightening between a strong 984 mb low SE of Nova
Scotia and a 1021 mb high over the E Atlantic. This is inducing
moderate to strong SW to W winds with seas at 8 to 12 ft N of 27N
between 34W and 69W. A 1020 mb high near Florida and the Bahamas
is promoting gentle to moderate winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft from
the Greater Antilles northward to beyond 31N, between 69W and the
Florida-Georgia coast. Light to gentle winds and similar seas are
also found near the E Atlantic high N of 20N between the NW
African coast and 34W, and along the surface ridge from 17N to 27N
between 34W and 69W. Gentle to moderate NE to SE trades and seas
at 5 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front moving southward between
Bermuda and NE Florida will move SE of the region through Wed.
High pressure currently over the E Gulf will shift eastward
following the front, and strengthen NE of the Bahamas Tue through
Fri.

$$

Chan
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