[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.Atlantic Gale Warning...
A 998 mb low pressure currently E of Cape Cod Bay will move
southeastward while gradually intensify over the next 24 to 48
hours. In the process, it will bring a strong cold front southward
to SE of Bermuda near 30N60W by late Sun night or early Mon
morning. This will generate gale winds E of Bermuda and then
spread southward to near 29N56W Mon afternoon. These gale winds
are going to last into late Mon night/early Tue morning. Seas in
this area are expected to peak between 20 and 22 ft. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly inland across central Africa.
An ITCZ extends from off the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast at 06N12W
through 03N30W to N of Brazil at 01N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 19W and 36W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is seen farther W from the
Equator to 03N between 36W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from central Florida to central
Mexico. This feature is supporting a light to gentle winds with
seas at 2 to 3 ft across the E and central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present over
the W Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will lift northward through
early next week, supporting moderate to fresh southeast winds
over the central and W Gulf. Looking ahead, the high pressure
will move eastward through mid week, allowing winds and seas to
diminish over the central and western Gulf by Wed night. Mostly
gentle winds and slight seas will persist over the E Gulf into
Mon, followed by moderate winds and seas through mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers over the NW and W
central basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Convergent trade
winds are producing similar conditions over Hispaniola and at the
SE basin, near the Venezuela coast. Otherwise a pair of high
pressure, one over the NW Bahamas and another over the central
Atlantic continue to support easterly flow in the Caribbean. An
earlier satellite scatterometer pass and wave model data indicate
moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with seas at 5 to 6 ft over the
S central basin, N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades and
seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse mainly during
overnight hours off Colombia starting tonight. Elsewhere, winds
and seas will diminish through Sun across the basin as high
pressure north of the area shifts eastward. High pressure will
build again north of the area following a cold front moving across
the W Atlantic. This will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds
across much of the basin through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning issued
for the central Atlantic.

A cold front curves southwestward from SW of the Azores across
31N39W to near 24N50W, then continues westward as a shear line to
near the SE Bahamas at 23N71W. Scattered showers are found up to
90 nm SE of the front, and up to 120 nm N of the shear line. A
couple of trade-wind disturbances are generating similar
conditions E of the Leeward Islands from 15N to 20N between 46W
and 59W. These disturbances will increase the chance of showers
for the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico from Sun
evening through Mon evening. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A trio of high pressures stretching eastward from the NW Bahamas
to W of the Canary Islands are promoting light to gentle winds
with seas at 4 to 7 ft from 20N to 28N between NW African and
Florida coasts. N of 28N, Moderate to fresh with locally strong
westerly winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are present between the
Moroccan and Georgia coasts. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades
are seen from 05N to 20N between the central African coast and
Lesser Antilles. Within this area, trade-wind swell and wind
waves are producing seas of 5 to 8 ft W of 40W; while residual NW
and trade-wind swells are maintaining seas at 8 to 10 ft E of 40W.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong northerly winds with seas
at 8 to 10 ft are evident N of Brazil from the Equator to 05N
between 40W and the 50W. Light to gentle E to SE trades and seas
of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the shearline extending along 22N through the
Turks and Caicos Islands will remain stationary and dissipate
overnight. High pressure N of shearline and just S of Bermuda
will slide eastward, ahead of a cold front that will move across
the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida Sun. Looking ahead, the
front will move SE of the region early next week as high pressure
builds NE of the N Bahamas behind the front. Large N swell with
building seas will follow the front east of 70W Sun through mid
week.

$$

Chan
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