[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Dec 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly over the African Continent. An ITCZ
extends from off the coast of Liberia near 04N10W to 02N30W to the
coast of NE Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is near this feature from 07N to 05N between 10W
and the Brazilian coast. Mid to upper-level winds are streaming
widespread cirrus from this convection east-northeastward across
the E tropical Atlantic.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from N Florida to the
Bay of Campeche. Tightening gradient between this ridge and a low
pressure near the Texas-Oklahoma-Kansas border is creating fresh
S winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft over the NW Gulf. Moderate SE winds
with seas at 4 to 6 ft are found across the W central Gulf and W
Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle SE to SSW winds and seas of 2 to
4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will lift northward through early
next week, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the central
and W Gulf. Looking ahead, the high pressure will move eastward
into mid week, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the
central and W Gulf by Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds will
persist over the E Gulf through the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southwestern end of a stationary front extends from the N
coast of Hispaniola to near Jamaica. Farther W, two trade-wind
disturbances are present SW of Jamima and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered showers are seen near these features,
including Hispaniola. Otherwise, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident across
the W and central basin; while gentle ENE trades with seas at 3 to
4 ft are found over the E basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds over the Windward
Passage following a front that stalled and dissipated over Haiti
will diminish slightly overnight. High pressure building N of the
area will support moderate to fresh winds over much of the central
and SW Caribbean through the early part of next week, including
overnight winds pulsing to strong off Colombia starting Sat night.
Looking ahead, NE to E winds may increase over the central
Caribbean as the high pressure builds further. For the tropical
Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands, E swell with wave
heights to 8 ft will subside through tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches southwestward from the central Atlantic
across 31N48W to N of Puerto Rico at 23N65W, then continues as a
stationary front to the N coast of Hispaniola. Scattered showers
are seen up to 80 nm NW, and up to 100 nm SE of this boundary.
Farther E, a dissipating stationary front curves southwestward
from W of Morocco across the Canary Islands to well NW of the Cabo
Verde Islands at 22N35W. Scattered showers are occurring up to
100 nm on either side of this feature. Two trade-wind disturbances
are producing similar conditions E of the Leeward Islands from
15N to 19N between 42W and 53W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The 1023 mb Bermuda High near 31N71W is providing light to gentle
winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft N of 27N between 70W and the
Florida-Georgia coast. Another 1021 mb high W of the Canary
Islands are supporting similar winds over the E central Atlantic
from 22N to 30N between the NW African coast and 40W. However,
large NW swell is maintaining 8 to 11-ft seas in this same area.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen near and
N of the stationary front across the Bahamas and W central
Atlantic E of 70W to beyond 31N. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong SW winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are present near and SE of
the cold front N of 29N to 40W. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to SE trades are seen from the Equator to near 20N
between the African coast and the Lesser Antilles. In this same
area, trade-wind swell and wind waves are generating 5 to 8-ft
seas W of 40W; while residual NW and trade-wind swells are
maintaining 8 to 11-ft seas E of 40W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold/stationary front will stall N
of the Leeward Islands through Sat evening, then dissipate Sun.
High pressure building behind the front off the Carolinas will
move to the S of Bermuda through early Sat, ahead of another cold
front that will move across the waters between Bermuda and NE
Florida Sun. Looking ahead, the front will move SE of the region
early next week as high pressure builds NE of the northern Bahamas
behind the front. Large N swell with building seas will follow
the front east of 70W Sun through mid week.

$$

Chan
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