[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Dec 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 06N19W to 01N37W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-06N between 07W-14W and from 00N-07N between 30W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from high pressure centered near the coast
of South Carolina to the central Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is
supporting a fresh southerly breeze in the northwest Gulf where
seas are likely 4-6 ft. A gentle to moderate breeze with 2 to 4
ft seas dominate the central basin with a light breeze and 1 to 2
ft seas in the northeast Gulf. No shower or thunderstorm activity
is currently observed in the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from high pressure over the
eastern Gulf to the Texas coast will lift northward through early
next week, supporting moderate to fresh southeast winds over the
western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the NW tip of Haiti near 20N73W to
18.5N75W. Isolated tstorms are noted over the Dominican Republic.
An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong
N to NE winds persisting in the Windward Passage extending south
to Jamaica. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Moderate to locally
fresh NE winds dominate the northwestern and central Caribbean
with 3 to 5 ft seas. In the eastern Caribbean a moderate easterly
breeze prevails with 3 to 4 ft seas. A surface trough extends
across the Mona Passage, generating isolated showers near Puerto
Rico. Isolated showers may also be occurring near a surface trough
over the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong north winds over the Windward
Passage following a front stalled over Haiti will diminish by
early Sat as the front dissipates. High pressure building north of
the area behind the front will support moderate to fresh winds
over much of the central and southwest Caribbean through the
middle part of next week, including overnight winds pulsing to
strong off Colombia starting Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two surface high pressures of 1023 mb are centered near 33N80W and
32N74W, respectively. Light to gentle winds prevail northwest of a
line from Miami FL to 31N68W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. A cold
front extends from 31N52W to 21N68W, then stationary to the NW tip
of Haiti. Scattered showers prevail east of 60W within 150 nm
northwest of the front and within 90 nm southeast of the front.
Fresh N to NE winds are west of the front with 6 to 8 ft seas.
Strong SW winds are within 240 nm east of the front, north of
29N, where seas are 8-10 ft. Farther east, 1019 mb high pressure
is centered near 27N32W. A surface ridge with light to gentle
winds and 5 to 6 ft seas extends across the basin from the Canary
Islands to the 1019 mb high near 27N32W to 20N66W. Fresh trades
are south of the ridge axis over the tropical Atlantic, south of
17N to the ITCZ between 30W-60W, where seas are 7-9 ft. Seas of
8-11 ft in N swell prevails across the waters east of 37W and
north of 10N.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N52W to 21N68W
will reach from 31N36W to 22N65W Sat evening, then dissipate Sun.
High pressure building behind the front off the Carolinas will
move to the south of Bermuda through early Sat, ahead of another
front that will move across the waters between Bermuda and
northeast Florida Sun. Strong SW to W winds are expected in
advance of this front, north of 28N between 40W-80W Sat night
through Sun night. As the front continues eastward on Mon, gale
force W winds are possible Mon into Mon night north of 29N between
35W-60W. Large N swell, with building seas will follow the front
east of 70W Sun through Tue. The highest seas (potentially 16 to
21 ft) are expected Mon through Tue north of 27N between 30W-60W.
High pressure will build in Tue over the western Atlantic behind
the front.

$$
Hagen
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