[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-03N between 35W-
40W, and from 01N to 03N between 42W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from high pressure centered over the
Carolinas to the central Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the west-central
and northwest Gulf, where buoy data shows seas around 3 to 5 ft. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass also indicated moderate NE
winds in the Yucatan Channel south of the ridge. Seas are at least
4 ft in the Yucatan Channel, accordingly. Light to gentle breezes
and slight seas are noted elsewhere. No shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed, and no fog is reported over the Gulf at
this time.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from high pressure over the
eastern Gulf to the Texas coast will lift north through early next
week, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the western
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong
winds across the Windward Passage, following a cold front that
move through that area yesterday evening. Seas are likely 5 to 7
ft in the Windward Passage. The same scatterometer pass showed
fresh winds off Nicaragua. Generally moderate NE to E winds
persists elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft outside
of shallow areas between western Panama and Nicaragua. A few
showers may be ongoing between Jamaica and southern Haiti close to
the frontal boundary, but no significant shower or thunderstorm
activity exists elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds over the Windward
Passage will diminish by early Sat as the front dissipates through
tonight. High pressure building north of the area behind the
front will support moderate to fresh winds over much of the
central and southwest Caribbean through early next week, including
overnight winds pulsing to strong off Colombia starting Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to northern Haiti. A few showers
are likely ongoing within 90 nm of the front north of 26N. Recent
buoy observations and altimeter satellite data confirm seas are 8
to 9 ft north of 30N west of the front to 70W. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are active west of the front, except for north of the
Bahamas where lighter winds are noted under the influence of broad
high pressure emerging off the Carolina coast. Farther east, 1021
mb high pressure is centered southwest of the Azores Islands near
30N35W, north of a stationary front reaching from roughly the
Canary Islands to 22N45W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted north
of 20N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of 20N. Seas of 8
to 12 ft dominate the waters north of 18N east of 45W, in N swell.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft in E swell and fresh trade winds south of 18N
west of 35W. Moderate seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from
31N60W to northern Haiti will stall north of the Leeward Islands
through late Sat then dissipate Sun. High pressure building behind
the front off the Carolinas will move to the south of Bermuda
through early Sat, ahead of another front moving into the waters
between Bermuda and northeast Florida Sun. Looking ahead, the
front will move southeast of the region early next week as high
pressure builds northeast of the northern Bahamas behind the
front.

Farther east, winds to gale force are possible between 35W
and 55W, both ahead of and behind the front north of 29N late Sun
through late Mon. In addition, large N swell with wave heights of
8 to 11 ft will follow the front east of 70W Sun through Tue.

$$
Christensen
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