[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 02N28W
to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 00N-05N between 49W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high pressure centered over the Carolinas extends
surface ridging southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. This is
causing dry, stable conditions across the basin. Moderate to
locally fresh SE to S winds are occurring off the coast of
southern Texas, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Moderate NE to E winds
are over the SE Gulf and near the Yucatan Channel, where seas are
3 to 5 ft. Gentle anticyclonic winds are elsewhere, with 1 to 3 ft
seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days. By tonight and continuing through early
next week, fresh southerly return flow will establish over the
western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches from the Windward Passage to the
eastern tip of Jamaica. A dissipating stationary front continues
southwestward to 16N78W. Isolated showers are near the front. A
surface trough extends from 18.5N69W to 14N74W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and within 90 nm east of the trough axis. No
major areas of convection are noted elsewhere. Moderate to fresh N
winds are occurring west of the stationary front with 4 to 5 ft
seas. Fresh to strong N winds are likely occurring offshore of
Nicaragua, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle trades are present
east of the front over the central Caribbean with 2 to 3 ft seas.
Moderate to fresh trades are present east of 65W with 4 to 5 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight
into Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue offshore
Nicaragua through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades
are expected in the eastern and central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N63W through the Turks and Caicos
and into the Windward Passage. Scattered showers extend about 240
nm west and 180 nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh N winds
are west of the front, with 5 to 7 ft seas. A 1022 mb high
pressure is centered near 29N37W, with light to gentle
anticyclonic winds from 26N-30N between 30W-50W. A stationary
front extends from 31N17W to 24N29W to 24N45W. Scattered showers
are north of 29N and east of 16W, east of the front. Moderate N-NE
winds are within 120 nm N of the stationary front. Fresh to strong
trades are prevalent north of the ITCZ to 15N, between 33W-55W,
where seas are 8-11 ft. Seas of 11 to 14 ft prevail N of 25N
between 16W-35W, associated with large NW to N swell. 8-11 ft seas
are elsewhere north of 19N and east of 44W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N63W to the
Turks and Caicos Islands will reach from near 31N60W to Haiti by
Fri, and then from 31N45W to 21N65W early Sat. A reinforcing
front will move through the area from 25N-31N between 65W-73W
through tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong N winds there.
Fresh to strong winds are expected Fri through Sat N of 28N
between 35W-60W as the front moves east. High pressure will
follow the front, building in over the western Atlantic Fri night
into Sat. Low pressure moving eastward N of the area is likely to
lead to another round of strong winds N of 28N Sat night into
Mon night. Gale force winds are possible north of 29N between
35W-65W Sun night into Mon night. N swell from this system is
forecast to cause seas of 12 to 22 ft early next week north of
21N between 30W-69W, highest on Mon north of 27N between 35W-63W.

$$
Hagen
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