[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes along the northern Gulf of Guinea
to the southern tip of Liberia near 05N08W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N08W to 01N30W to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and N of the ITCZ to
08N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high pressure centered over Alabama is dominating Gulf
weather today causing dry and stable conditions across the basin.
Over the eastern Gulf, moderate to locally fresh NE flow
is observed with a recent altimeter pass showing 3 to 5 ft seas.
Along the Texas coast buoys are reporting moderate southerly flow
extending about 180 nm from the coast with 2 to 4 ft seas. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by gentle anticyclonic flow
and 1 to 3 ft seas.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the
next several days. By tonight and continuing through the
weekend, fresh southerly return flow will establish over the
western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front stretches from the Windward Passage to the
southern coast of Nicaragua. Scattered weak convection is noted
within 120 nm of the boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly flow
dominates behind the front with a strong breeze along the coast of
Nicaragua. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft behind the front. Farther
east, a low pressure trough extends from the coast of the
Dominican Republic to 15N73W in the central Caribbean. Scattered
moderate convection and embedded thunderstorms are noted near this
feature. Ahead of the cold front in the central Caribbean winds
are generally gentle outside of any localized thunderstorm
activity with 1 to 3 ft seas. The eastern Caribbean is dominated
by fresh easterly trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas.

The cold front will drift east, then stall from Haiti to offshore
Costa Rica tonight, while dissipating. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected behind the front offshore Nicaragua through
tonight. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades are expected in the
eastern and central Caribbean. For tropical Atlantic waters E of
the Lesser Antilles, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh
today, but seas of 8-9 ft in E swell will continue to propagate
across this area through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N65W through the Turks and Caicos
and into the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection
extends about 360 nm east and 180 nm west of the front. Behind the
front, buoys are reporting moderate northerly winds with 6 to 8
ft seas. East of the front, extending to 50W, moderate to fresh
southerly winds are observed with 6 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from near
31N60W to Haiti by Friday, then gradually move east of the area
this weekend. A reinforcing front will move through NE portions of
the area today, bringing some strong winds N of 28N and E of 75W.
High pressure will follow the front. Low pressure N of the area
may lead to another around of strong winds N of 28N this weekend.

To the east, another cold front stretches from the Canary Islands
to 23N35W to 24N45W. Convection associated with this front is
mainly confined to waters near the Canary Islands. High pressure
of 1025 mb, centered near 30N39W, is pushing southward behind
this front. Winds N of the front are moderate or less, but a
recent altimeter pass confirmed seas of 10 to 14 ft in northerly
swell. S of 20N, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE trades
are ongoing with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, winds
are mainly moderate or less, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

$$
FLYNN
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