[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Gale force westerly winds are ongoing N of 28N between 73W and
79W, along and behind a cold front. As this front moves E today,
winds will subside to strong by afternoon, and remain strong into
Thu. Please, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 04N to
04N08W. The ITCZ continues from 04N08W to 05N30W to 04N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and N of these
boundaries, S of 10N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved E of the basin overnight, with high
pressure centered along the upper Texas coast building into the
Gulf. Thus dry conditions prevail. NW winds are fresh in the
eastern Gulf, moderate in the central Gulf, and light to gentle in
the western Gulf. Seas are subsiding across the basin, and range
from to 6 to 8 ft in the eastern and central Gulf, to 4 to 6 ft in
the SW Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW Gulf.

Winds and seas will continue to diminish over the eastern Gulf
today as high pressure builds in. The center of the high will
cross the northern Gulf into Fri, bringing tranquil conditions.
Later on Fri and continuing into the weekend, fresh southerly
return flow will establish over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from central Cuba to eastern Honduras.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm on both
sides of the front. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are occurring
behind the front, with the highest winds in the Gulf of Honduras.

Convection along the eastern extension of the Eastern Pacific
monsoon trough has diminished overnight, but scattered moderate
convection has developed offshore Nicaragua, as deep tropical
moisture lifts northward toward the aforementioned cold front.
Elsewhere across the basin, dry conditions prevail. Moderate
trades dominate the central and eastern Caribbean, with light to
gentle winds ahead of the cold front in the western basin. Seas
are 3 to 6 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, 2 to 4 in the
western areas, except behind the cold front, where seas are 5 to 7
ft.

The cold front will move east, then stall by late Thu from the
Windward Passage to offshore Nicaragua, and finally dissipate by
the weekend. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front into tonight.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades prevail in the eastern and
central Caribbean, with lighter winds to the west.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on gale
conditions in the vicinity of a cold front north of the Bahamas
this morning.

A cold front stretches from 31N74W through the NW Bahamas and into
central Cuba. To the N of 26N and W of 60W, on both sides of the
front, strong W winds are occurring, with seas of 10 to 14 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 60 nm E of the
frontal boundary, mainly to the N of the Bahamas. Ahead of this
front, and extending as far S as the Greater Antilles and as far E
as 50W, moderate to fresh mainly S winds prevail, with seas of 5
to 7 ft.

Farther E, another cold front stretches from 31N27W to 27N43W to
31N59W. No significant convection is associated with this front.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are present N of this boundary, with
seas of 8 to 12 ft. South of this front, a ridge of high pressure
with an axis extending along 25N is dominating much of the basin.
The ridge is anchored by a pair of 1020 mb high pressure centers
located near 24N32W and 26N53W. Winds in the area of the ridge are
gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. To the south of the
ridge, for areas S of 18N, the pressure gradient between the high
pressure and the ITCZ is creating fresh to strong trades, which
are in turn inducing seas of 8 to 11 ft. The strongest winds and
highest seas are from 10N to 17N between 35W and 55W.

For the forecast, the cold front in the western basin will move
east through the waters the remainder of the week, but westerly
gales will diminish by midday, leaving strong NW winds in place
through tonight. High pressure will build in starting Thu, leading
to tranquil conditions. Low pressure north of the area will lead
to strong W winds N of 28N this weekend.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net