[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1012 mb extratropical low in the
central Gulf of Mexico is producing northerly gale force winds.
The low should deepen and steadily move northeastward and reach
the Florida peninsula on Tue. Gale force N winds and seas of 10
to 13 ft are anticipated to continue in the W semicircle of the
low, but are likely to only cover a limited region. As the low
crosses Florida, it will drag a cold front across the SE Gulf by
Tue night. Strong to near gale NW winds behind the front will
quickly diminish on Wed. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: The low pressure over the central Gulf of
Mexico will move northeastward to offshore NE Florida and
Georgia by late Tue. Strong southerly winds are expected ahead of
the low and E of Florida by early Tue afternoon. Near the low,
strong to gale force SW to W winds are expected mainly over
waters N of 27N W of 70W Tue through Wed. Marine conditions will
gradually improve from W to E across the waters N of 27N W of 65W
on Thu. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning E of 35W: Gale-force winds are
forecast by Meteo France in the zone named IRVING, located W of
the Madeira Islands. These winds are associated with a low
pressure system spinning between the Madeira and the Azores
Islands. The forecast indicates westerly force 8 (Beaufort wind
scale) in northern Irving with severe gusts. For more details,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N-07N between 16W-23W. Similar
convection is also seen from 02N-04N between 30W-33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see
the Special Features section for details.

Hazardous marine conditions are associated with a deepening low
pressure system located over the central Gulf of Mexico near
25N91W. A cold front stretches from the low center across the
eastern Bay of Campeche into SE Mexico. Gale force N winds are on
the W semicircle of the low while fresh to strong winds follow
the front. An area of showers and thunderstorms is within about
240 nm NE quadrant of low center affecting the waters from 24N to
26N between 86W and 91W. Strong storms are possible within this
area. Elsewhere, abundant cloudiness dominates most of the Gulf
waters with low clouds baking up against the Sierra Madre
Mountains.

For the forecast in the Gulf region, please refer to the Special
Features section for more information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The E Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over Panama and regional waters. Elsewhwere,
patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are observed producing isolated to scattered passing showers. One
of this patch of moisture is approaching the Leeward Islands and
is expected to move across the islands tonight increasing the
likelihood of showers.

As high pressure moves eastward N of area, the trade winds have
diminished. Gentle to moderate winds dominate most of the basin
with mainly light winds in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, as high pressure remains weak and centered
well northeast of the Caribbean, the tradewinds will only reach
moderate to fresh over the S central Caribbean and tropical N
Atlantic with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere for the next
several days. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel
Tue, then reach from E Cuba to Nicaragua by Thu morning, before
stalling. Fresh N winds can be expected behind this front. Large
N to NE swell will continue in the tropical N Atlantic into Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW N Atlantic, N of 27N and
E of Florida. Please, see the Special Features section for
details.

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas, then
continues as a stationary front across the Straits of Florida.
Some shower activity is along the frontal boundary. The most
recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh NE winds N of
27N and W of the front. Fresh SW winds are also noted N of 30N
and SE of the front between 55W and 70W. E of the front, high
pressure of 1020 mb centered near 26N46W dominates the remainder
of the Atlantic forecast area. A surface trough is analyzed from
31N20W to 25N31W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the above mentioned frontal boundary
will begin to retreat northward by early Tue as a warm front.
Low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico will move northeastward
to offshore NE Florida and Georgia by late Tue. High pressure will
follow the low center with improving marine conditions.

$$
GR
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