[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is along 28N82W 20N98W.
Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights from 9 feet to 11 feet,
from 22N to 26N between 96W and 97W. These conditions will last for
the next 9 hours or so. A 1013 mb low pressure center will develop
near 25N94W. A cold front will extend from the low pressure center
toward the south/southwest. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights
that will range from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 22N to 24N between 95W
and 97W. The forecast situation at 24 hours will consist of a cold
front, that will extend from a 1011 mb low pressure center that will
be near 26N89W, to 18N93W. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights
that will range from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 19N to 24N between 92W
and 97W, including within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico. Please, refer
to the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Wind Warning from 35W eastward: Gale-force winds
are forecast in the area that is called IRVING. An Azores low
pressure center and two frontal boundaries are to the north of 25N
from 31W eastward. These conditions are expected to continue until
21 December at 00 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast, on the following website,
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1956.19
1956225601.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to
04N23W and 04N36W. A surface trough is along 39W/40W from 06N toward
the Equator. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 25W and
31W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm
to the south of the monsoon trough from 15W eastward, and within 180
nm to the north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 17W and
25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the current cold front and associated gale-force winds, and a
developing low pressure center and its associated gale-force
winds. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and scattered moderate to isolated strong, are to the north of
the current cold front. Scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A cold front from near Tampa Bay to just N of Veracruz, Mexico,
will stall tonight as low pressure begins to form along it in
the western Gulf. The low will then track NE through the
northern Gulf through Tue, with the cold front dragging eastward
to the south of it. Gale force winds offshore
Tampico, Mexico will continue tonight, then gradually move NE to
the north and west of the low pressure on Mon. Elsewhere behind
the front, strong NW winds can be expected. Winds and seas
will subside Wed through Thu in the wake of the front, as weak
high pressure builds in across the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between a 1022 mb west central
Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 28N60W, and low
pressure in Colombia/Panama, still is resulting in fresh to
strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, from Haiti and
Jamaica southward. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are
offshore NW Colombia. Similar wind speeds also are in the the
northern Leeward Islands
regional waters, especially to the N of Guadeloupe with sea
heights there ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet. Moderate to fresh
winds cover the rest of the area, except in the NW Caribbean Sea
where mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail. The sea heights
range from 8 feet to 11 feet to the E of the Lesser Antilles.
The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet in the central
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in
the remainder of the area that is from 18N southward from 82W
eastward. The sea heights in the NW Caribbean Sea range from 3
feet to 5 feet.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 13N southward from 72W westward, to the north of the E
Pacific monsoon trough. Widely scattered to isolated passing
rainshowers are in areas of low level moisture, that are
embedded in the trade wind flow, in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea, to 60W.

The gradient between high pressure to the northeast and lower
pressure in South America will lead to fresh to strong winds in
the Tropical Atlantic Ocean tonight, and waters offshore
Colombia into Mon. Large N to NE swell will continue in the
tropical N Atlantic through Mon night. Looking ahead, a
cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Tue night and
may reach Honduras and Nicaragua Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N80W, to Florida from 28N to 29N,
into the south central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the
south and southeast of the cold front, and a second frontal
boundary that is to the north of 31N between 70W and the SE
U.S.A.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
40W westward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N60W.

A stationary front passes through 31N18W, to 24N31W. The
southernmost point of a cold front reaches 31N26W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 27N northward between 16W and 42W.

Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights in the range of 10 feet
to 14 feet, are associated with the front. Fresh to strong winds
are from the ITCZ to 14N between 20W and 30W. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds are in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, due to
the pressure gradient between the 1022 mb high pressure center
and the ITCZ lower pressures.

High pressure E of the area is leading to fresh winds near the
Greater Antilles and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. As the
high moves east tonight, a cold front that has moved off
the SE U.S. coast will move east across the northern waters
early this week, leading to strong winds mainly N of 28N. Low
pressure will form to the west of the area then move NE off the
Florida coast by Tue night, bringing another potential for strong to
near gale force winds near the low center over the NW waters Tue
night through Thu. Large N swell impacting the Atlantic zones from
19N to 22N between 55W and 65W will diminish tonight.

$$
mt/sk
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