[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Gale Warning is no longer in effect for the NW Gulf of
Mexico. Strong to near-gale winds behind a cold front will
continue through Mon. However, a low pressure is expected to form
along this front over the central Gulf Mon. This feature will
introduce strong to gale winds for the central Gulf by noon Mon.
Therefore a new Gale Warning is issued for the central Gulf. Refer
to the High Seas Forecast at the following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

An ITCZ extends westward from SW of Sierra Leone at 06N16W to
04N30W, then continues from 09N35W to near the Venezuela-Guyana
border. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring near the first ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 17W and 30W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near the second ITCZ from
07N to 12N between 35W and the Venezuela-Guyana border.

The E Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over Panama and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found near and up
to 150 nm NW of the front. Convergent southerly winds S of the
front are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
from N of the Bay of Campeche to W of southern Florida. Behind the
front, strong to near-gale N to NE winds with seas at 8 to 10 ft
prevail. S and SE of the front, gentle to moderate winds and seas
at 3 to 5 ft prevail, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the cold front will move slowly southward
through this evening. A low pressure is expected to form along
this front in the central Gulf Mon, then move NE into the SE U.S.
Tue. This will accelerate the front eastward through the Gulf by
Tue night. This low will likely bring strong to gale winds to
portions of the N central and NE Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas
will subside Wed through Thu in the wake of the front, as weak
high pressure builds in across the Gulf. Refer to the Special
Features section for more information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough and the leading element of a shear line are
causing scattered showers near Puerto Rico and the Leeward
Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Caribbean Basin. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to
ENE trades and seas of 9 to 11 ft are found over the central
basin. Gentle to moderate ESE trades with seas at 4 to 5 ft are
present across the NW basin. Moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas
of 7 to 9 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure building southward through the
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean through tonight. The high will then push east Mon,
allowing winds to diminish. Large N to NE swell will continue in
the tropical N Atlantic as well as Mona and Anegada Passages
through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front will move through
the Yucatan Channel late Tue and may reach Honduras and Nicaragua
by Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent SW winds are generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms N of 28N between 74W and the Florida-Georgia coast,
and also W of the Canary Islands N of 26N between 29W and 33W.
Moderate winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen across the first
area, while moderate to fresh with locally strong winds and seas
of 9 to 12 ft are found across the second area. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

Light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft associated
with the Bermuda High are evident N of 25N between 56W and 74W.
Moderate with locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are noted near the Canary Islands N of 26N between the Mauritania-
Western Sahara coast and 29W. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas
at 7 to 9 ft are seen from 08N to 25N between 33W and the
Greater/Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong NE trades and seas of 8
to 10 ft are present from 03N to 14N between the central African
coast and 33W. Gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to
6 ft prevail across the rest of the basin, including the Cabo
Verde Islands.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda High will shift to the
E and allow winds to relax Mon. A cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast tonight, then move east, bringing strong winds on both
sides of the front mainly N of 29N. Low pressure will move NE off
the SE U.S. coast Tue, bringing another potential for strong to
near gale winds on Wed and Thu. Large N swell impacting the
Atlantic zones from 19N to 22N between 55W and 65W will diminish
into tonight.

$$

Chan
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