[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force winds in the Gulf of Mexico: A cold front is along
30N91W 25N98W. Expect gale-force wind speeds from 24N to 29N
between 92W and 98W. The gale-force winds are forecast to
continue for the next 24 hours or so. Please, refer to the
following website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W, to
05N20W 04N30W 03N35W. A surface trough is along 04N40W 02N41W,
toward the Equator along 42W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm off the coast of
Liberia, and within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 17W
and 32W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N
southward between 32W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, beyond the Deep South of Texas, into NE
Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 135 nm to the southeast of the cold front.
Gale-force wind speeds are associated with the cold front.
Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.
The sea heights are forecast to range from 10 feet to 13 feet
during the next 24 hours to the north of the cold front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center, that is near 30N60W, to
28N75W, and to 26N86W in the east central Gulf of Mexico.

Gentle to moderate wind speeds are in the Gulf of Mexico away
from the cold front. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5
feet.

A cold front has moved off the Texas coast this evening, and
gale force wind gusts are developing behind it. These winds will
prevail into Sun, before diminishing slightly. The front will
move slowly SE through the Gulf until low pressure forms along
it in the west-central Gulf Mon. The front then will accelerate
as the low moves NE into the SE U.S. Tue night. Winds and seas
will subside Wed through Thu in the wake of the front, as weak
high pressure builds in across the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean
30N60W high pressure center and
the lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, is
supporting fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea
from Jamaica southward. The fastest wind speeds are offshore NW
Colombia. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the remainder of
the eastern sections and the central
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are in the NW
Caribbean Sea. Seas of 9-12 ft dominate the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles and in the south central Caribbean Sea. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet elsewhere S of 18N and E
82W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet in NE swell in
the Atlantic Ocean passages that are to the east of the Mona
Passage. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW
Caribbean Sea.

Isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers cover the
coastal plains and the coastal waters from NE Nicaragua to
eastern Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the SW
corner of the area, from 12N southward from 75W westward, on the
northern side of the monsoon trough. Patches of low level
moisture, that are embedded in the trade wind flow, are
elsewhere, and producing isolated to scattered passing
rainshowers.

High pressure building south through the Atlantic will support
fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean into tonight.
The high will then push east Mon, allowing winds to diminish.
Large N to NE swell will continue in the tropical N Atlantic as
well as Mona and Anegada Passages into Mon night. Looking ahead,
a cold front should move through the Yucatan Channel late Tue
and may reach Honduras and Nicaragua by Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge is along 24N45W, to a 1026 mb high pressure
center that is near 30N60W, to 29N66W, 28N75W, and to 26N86W in
the east central Gulf of Mexico.

A first cold front passes through 31N17W, to 26N20W just to the
east of the Canary Islands, to 23N24W. The cold front is
dissipating from 23N24W to 20N32W. Precipitation: rainshowers
are possible within 180 nm to the east and southeast of the cold
front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds that are moving
northeastward from the Atlantic Ocean into Africa, are within
700 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front.

A second cold front is along 31N20W 30N30W 31N37W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 120 nm to the south and southeast of the second cold
front.

An earlier shearline was along 22N30W 17N45W 18N60W. Fresh to
strong NE winds have been on the northern side of the shearline
W of 35W. Mainly moderate NE winds have been on the southern
side of the shearline. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure, and the lower pressures near the ITCZ, supports fresh
to locally strong NE-E winds from 10N-16N between 40W and the
Lesser Antilles. Seas of 9-12 ft in NE swell are in this region.
Altimeter passes indicate seas of 9-13 ft in the wake of the
front between 40W-55W.

The Bermuda High is inducing fresh to strong trades near the
Greater Antilles and mainly gentle winds elsewhere. These
conditions will prevail today, before the high shifts to the
east and winds relax. A cold front will move off the SE U.S.
coast Mon, then move east, bringing strong winds on both sides
of the front mainly N of 29N. Low pressure will move NE off the
SE U.S. coast Tue, bringing another potential for strong to near
gale winds on Wed and Thu. Large N swell impacting the Atlantic
zone from 19N to 22N between 55W and 65W will diminish today.

$$
mt/sk
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