[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170952
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
to near 07N27W then transitions to the ITCZ and continues from
07N27W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N
between the coast of Africa and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface trough extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico near
29N86W to the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Convection
previously associated with this trough has dissipated. Moderate E
to SE winds dominate the Gulf basin, except locally fresh winds
within the Florida Straits and off the southern Texas coast. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
forecast waters through Sat, supporting moderate to locally
fresh winds. A cold front is forecast to enter the basin Sat
night into early Sun. Fresh to strong winds and building seas
will prevail west of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of
16N and W of 79W, including over portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica, where localized flooding is possible. The pressure
gradient between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic
and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 7 to 10 ft over the central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft over the
eastern Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will prevail over the western
Atlantic through the forecast period. This will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean into nearly next week.
Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front stretches from 31N29W to 21N53W, where it
transitions to a shear line that continues to 23N61W. A weak
surface trough is noted ahead of the front about 120 nm, to the E
of 35W. High pressure of 1032 mb centered just E of Bermuda is
building S in the wake of the front, leading to an increasing
pressure gradient over much of the area. Strong winds are noted
from 20N to 25N between 55W and 65W, with fresh to strong winds
ongoing over much of the rest of the basin E of 70W. Farther W,
generally moderate east winds prevail. Gales north of the area
have generated a large northerly swell which has propagated into
the northern waters. The swell is producing seas of 12 ft or
greater north of 24N and behind the front to around 70W, and are
currently peaking near 19 ft over the discussion waters along 31N
between 40W and 46W. West of 70W, seas range from 5 to 8 ft

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is supporting
moderate to fresh winds over the forecast waters. The area of high
pressure will build southward, bringing an increase in winds and
seas into the weekend. For the start of next week, a cold front
will move into northwest waters.

$$
KONARIK
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