[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N17W to 06.5N35W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 150 nm north and 90 nm south of the
ITCZ between 22W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail over the southeast Gulf with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the southeast
Gulf, 1-3 ft over the northeast Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
forecast waters through the week. Fresh east winds will spread
westward through the Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf
S of 26N through midweek along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient from high pressure centered over the
southeast U.S. combined with lower pressure over Colombia is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean
as well as over the Windward Passage, south of Cuba and
Hispaniola, and offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, reaching near 8 ft in
the areas of stronger winds.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue over the
south- central Caribbean through the week. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere. Strong high pressure will prevail
over the western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will
result in fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds in the
Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola through
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 29N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm of this boundary north of 30N.
A 1028 mb Azores high is centered near 39N28W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds from 13N to 24N
and between 24W to 60W. Seas are in the 7 to 11 ft range in this
region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
remainder of the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N,
with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere over the tropical waters south of
20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Medium to
high ash concentrations are expected near and south of the
volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this
ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure prevails across the
western Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh winds over the
forecast waters. High pressure will build southward from the
middle to end of the week resulting in an increase in winds and
seas.

$$
AL
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