[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Dec 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone to
07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W passing 05N35W to 01N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 13W
and 22W, and from 02N to 07N between 37W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends west from central Florida
across the northern Gulf of Mexico to 27N95W 90 nm SE of Houston
and then south into the Bay of Campeche. A moderate to fresh
easterly breeze dominates majority of the basin with 2-4 ft seas
except for 3-5 ft seas in the Bay of Campeche that have been
decreasing over the last 12 hours.

For the forecast, patchy marine fog will lower visibility along
the NE Gulf coast once again Tue morning. The stationary front
will dissipate today. Fresh east winds will spread westward
through the Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf S of 26N
through midweek along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure across the eastern seaboard of the United States is
maintaining the gradient with low pressure over Colombia. This set
up is supporting strong NE winds in the Windward Passage with
fresh to locally strong trades over the central Caribbean and in
the lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft
elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far SW
Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica, in association with the
east Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the
south-central Caribbean through the week. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere. High pressure will build over the
western Atlantic through the forecast period, which will result in
fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds and building seas
in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola
through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N62W to
28N76W where it becomes stationary and extends to central Florida.
Showers and thunderstorms are noted along this boundary east of
63W. There is a moderate NE breeze north of this front with
gentle to moderate winds south of the boundary. These winds
increase southward to moderate to fresh south of 23N. Seas in this
area are in the 4-7 ft range. A 1033 mb Azores high is centered
near 37N32W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong
winds from 10N to 26N and between 18W to 55W. Recent altimeter
data has confirmed seas in this area are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and 6-8 ft seas prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Medium to high
ash concentrations are expected near and south of the volcano. Marine
and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will drift southward
while gradually dissipating. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front. This will freshen winds over the forecast waters,
mainly south of 25N, through the week. Expect moderate to fresh
northeast to east trade winds to increase by mid week and prevail
through Friday.

$$
Flynn
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