[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130415
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
begins near 07N18W and extends to 04N35W and to the coast of
Amapa, Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ E of 23W and W of 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front snakes its way across the Gulf waters
from near Tampa, Florida, to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Despite
the presence of the frontal boundary, fairly tranquil weather
conditions prevail across the basin with only a few shallow
showers dotting the basin. Fresh easterly winds are found in the
SE Gulf, mainly in the Florida Straits. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are noted elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas of 4-6 ft are present
W of 90W, with the highest seas occurring offshore Veracruz. Seas
of 2-4 ft are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, patchy marine fog will lower visibility along the NE
Gulf tonight and once again Tue. A stationary front extends from
central Florida to near 25N95W to the Bay of Campeche. Strong N
winds will remain through this evening across the southwestern
Gulf W of the front, with seas to 8 ft subsiding tonight. The
front will dissipate through Mon. Fresh east winds will spread
westward through the Straits of Florida and to the eastern Gulf S
of 26N Mon through midweek along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles has been
displaced eastward by the frontal boundary moving across the NW
Atlantic. This has allowed the pressure gradient between the high
pressure system and lower pressures over northern South America to
relax a little. Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh to
locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean Sea and in
the lee of Cuba. Fresh to locally strong trades are also likely
present offshore southern Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage,
however, this portion of the basin was not captured by the
satellite- derived wind data. Moderate or weaker winds prevail in
the rest of the Caribbean. Seas of 5-7 ft are found in the
central, SW and eastern Caribbean, while 3-5 ft are noted
elsewhere in the basin. A few showers are observed within 60 nm of
the coast of Costa Rica and Colombia, while fairly tranquil
conditions are the norm in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the south-
central Caribbean through mid week. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere. High pressure will build over the western
Atlantic through the forecast period. This will result in fresh
to locally strong northeast winds and building seas in the
Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola
through the week

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N72W to the Space Coast of
Florida near 28N80W. There is also a pre-frontal trough that
extends from 31N66W to 27N72W and only a few showers are seen near
the frontal boundary and trough axis. The subtropical Atlantic
remains under the influence of a broad high pressure regime
anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure system located SW of the
Azores. As a result of the pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa and the deep
tropics, fresh to strong easterly winds are found mainly S of 26N
and E of 60W. Fresh to locally strong trades are also present at
the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas of 7-11 ft are
prevalent over a large area in the tropical Atlantic, mainly E of
65W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found
elsewhere in the basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure is producing moderate
to fresh NE to E winds S of 22N, and mainly gentle to moderate
winds N of 22N. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to
stall and reach Central Florida tonight. This front is forecast to
dissipate over the southeastern waters on Mon night. High
pressure behind the front will bring fresh to strong northeast to
east winds mainly across the waters south of 27N by Mon night.
These conditions are expected to last through midweek.

$$
DELGADO
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