[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strengthening Azores high will
tighten the pressure gradient off the coast of Morocco,
generating N-NE gales in the marine zone Agadir and the northern
part of Tarfaya beginning tonight at 09/0300 UTC and persisting
through at least 09/1200 UTC Thursday. Expect seas of 12-15 ft
within the area of gale force winds. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 04N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N-08N between 27W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to 27N96W.
Low pressure previously along the western portion of this front,
off the Texas coast, has dissipated. Scattered moderate convection
exists along a pre-frontal trough roughly 90 km south of the
front, while convection along the front has dissipated. Gentle to
moderate N winds are occurring to the N of the cold front, with
light to gentle winds to the south. There is an area of moderate E
winds just N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, high pressure along the Mississippi Valley will
shift E this evening, pushing a cold front across the north-
central and northeast Gulf before dissipating tonight. A ridge
will build westward across the basin, with a high pressure cell
remaining over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly
return flow will set-up across the western and central Gulf on Fri
and Sat, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW
Gulf by Sat morning. Increasing winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging from subtropical high pressure is interacting with low
pressure over the Colombian Basin to produce enhanced easterly
flow over the region. Fresh winds are occurring over the south-
central Caribbean with strong winds off the coast of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the E
basin as well as the SW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with
gentle E winds elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
in the SW Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft in the central and eastern basin,
and 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Dry air is preventing
significant convection everywhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the northern Caribbean Sea and the Colombian/Panamanian low will
support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Mon night. Moderate
to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere except in the NW Caribbean
where mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected through Thu.
High pressure will strengthen over the western Atlantic Thu night,
and fresh to locally strong NE winds will develop in the Windward
Passage, the lee of Cuba and S of Hispaniola through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the special features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in the east Atlantic. A strong 1036 mb high pressure
near the Azores over the dominate feature in the basin. To the W
of 65W, for areas S of 23N, gentle to moderate trades dominate,
with moderate SW winds to the N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Between 50W
and 65W, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
E of 50W, fresh to strong trades are ongoing with seas of 8 to 11
ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the Mississippi
Valley will push a cold front off NE Florida by this evening. The
front will move across the northern forecast waters through Thu
night before dissipating. High pressure will build across the
region in the wake of the front, producing moderate to fresh NE to
E winds S of 22N, and mainly gentle to moderate winds N of 22N
Thu night through Sun night.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory
states that low to medium ash concentration is expected near and
SW of the volcano.

$$
KONARIK
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