[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 05N22W to
04N36W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 22W and 48W and from
00N-04N between 27W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 06/2100 UTC, a cold front has moved just offshore of the
upper Texas coast, and extends from Lake Charles Louisiana to
Corpus Christi Texas. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW
Gulf ahead of the front north of 28N between the mid-Louisiana
coast and Matagorda Bay Texas. Coastal observations indicate fresh
N winds behind the front. High pressure ridging extends from the
NE Gulf west-southwestward to the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail across most of the basin. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in the
eastern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft in the western Gulf.

The cold front over the NW Gulf will bring fresh to strong winds
off the Texas coast through tonight before diminishing. The front
will stall and linger near the northern Gulf coast through
midweek. A high pressure ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters
through late this week. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is
expected to develop over the western and central Gulf on Fri and
Sat. A strong cold front will push off the Texas coast by Sat
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry conditions prevail over the Caribbean due to subsidence. There
is no significant shower or thunderstorm activity over water.
Scattered moderate showers are noted over Panama in association
with the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong trades prevail across
the Caribbean south of 18N and east of 80W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft,
highest well offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds are over the W Caribbean, with 3 to 6 ft
seas.

Fresh to strong trade winds, pulsing to locally near gale force at
night, will prevail over the south-central Caribbean and in the
Gulf of Venezuela this week, between the Colombian low and a high
pressure ridge located north of the region. Strong winds will
also pulse south of Hispaniola over the next few days. Fresh to
strong winds could pulse in the Windward Passage and the lee of
Cuba late this week into this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trades are expected across much of the forecast area, with
gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb area of high pressure centered just northeast of Bermuda
has surface ridging that extends to central Florida, producing
gentle to moderate winds north of 22N west of 70W. Seas are 2 to
5 ft west of 75W and 5-6 ft between 70W-75W. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds are elsewhere W of 60W with seas of 5 to 6
ft. A surface trough extending near the east coast of southern and
central Florida is inducing scattered moderate convection between
South Florida and the northwest Bahamas. Farther east, a surface
trough extends from 31N52W to 23N55W. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are within 240 n mi west of the trough axis, while light to gentle
winds are found within 180 n mi to its east. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 180 nm east of this trough axis. An
upper-level low centered near 26N24W is inducing scattered showers
and isolated tstorms from 20N-30N between 17W-25W. Fresh NE to E
winds prevail across the entire eastern Atlantic, from the ITCZ to
31N between the coast of Africa and 50W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft
across most of the area.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France,
at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory
states that ash concentration near the volcano is low at this
time.

For the forecast west of 65W, a high pressure ridge will prevail
along 26N-27N through late this week. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge,
especially south of 22N and including approaches to the Windward
Passage. A weak cold front will move over the northern waters Wed
night and Thu, then lift northward as a warm front on Fri.

For the forecast in the eastern Atlantic, northeast winds will
increase to strong to near gale force Thu offshore of Morocco and
Western Sahara, with seas building to 10-15 ft north of the Canary
Islands.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net