[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061706
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Dec 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N10W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N35W to
04N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 08N between 09W and 24W, from 01N to 09N
between 24W and 37W and from 03N to 08N between 37W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge of high pressure extends from central Florida
westward across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevail across most of the basin, with seas of
1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft over the western
portion of the basin. Other than a few isolated showers near the
Texas coast, tranquil weather is occurring across the basin.

The high pressure ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters through
late this week. A weak cold front will move over the NW Gulf
later today, then stall and linger near the northern Gulf coast
through midweek. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is expected to
develop over the northwestern and north-central Gulf on Fri,
ahead of a stronger cold front that should be near the Texas coast
by late Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough over the extreme SW Caribbean is supporting
scattered moderate convection S of 11N and W of 77W. Otherwise,
only scattered patches of trade wind showers cover the basin.
Fresh to strong trades prevail across the Caribbean south of 18N
and east of 80W, with strong to locally near gale force winds near
the coast of Colombia. Seas are 6 to 10 ft, highest offshore
Colombia and eastern Panama. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are
over the W Caribbean, with 3 to 6 ft seas.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central
Caribbean and in the Gulf of Venezuela this week between the
Colombian low and a high pressure ridge located north of the
region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are expected across
much of the forecast area, with gentle to moderate winds in the NW
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 mb area of high pressure centered near Bermuda has surface
ridging that extends to central Florida, producing gentle to
moderate SW winds north of 26N west of 75W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in
this area. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are elsewhere
W of 60W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A surface trough extends from
31N52W to 25N56W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are within 240 n mi
west of the trough axis, while light to gentle winds are found
within 300 n mi to its east. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring with this trough from 25N to 31N between 48W and 51W.
Moderate to fresh northeasterly winds prevail across remainder of
the central and eastern Atlantic between the ITCZ and 31N.


The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France,
at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory
states that ash concentration near the volcano is low at this
time.

For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure ridge will
prevail along 26N-27N through late this week. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds are expected along the southern periphery of the
ridge, especially south of 22N and including approaches to the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, a weak cold front will stall over the
far northern waters early Tue, then move northward Tue night.
Another cold front will move over the northern waters on Thu, then
lift northward as a warm front on Fri.

$$
Latto
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