[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050942
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ
extends west-southwestward from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N30W to 03N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 10W and 15W, from 03N
to 09N between 21W and 25W, and from 01N to 05N between 44W and
48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is in the NE Gulf with light winds there.
Gentle to moderate E-SE flow dominates elsewhere. Seas are 3 ft
or less across the basin, except to 4 ft W-NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Some residual showers are present in the central Gulf
where a surface trough has recently dissipated.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move off northern
Florida Tue before stalling and retreating northwest through Tue
night. Otherwise, weak high pressure will prevail through the
middle of the week. Another weak cold front may move off northern
Florida Thu. Moderate NE to E swell east of 70W will persist
through the early part of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging prevails across the Caribbean Sea, leading to
subsidence and relatively dry air, especially east of 75W.
Upper-level diffluence in the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms from north of the coast of Honduras to
21N between 83W and 86W. Convergent winds are supporting showers
across Jamaica and W-SW. Strong ENE trades with 8 to 10 ft seas
continue over the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail
elsewhere across the Caribbean, except to strong just south of
Hispaniola.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the south-
central Caribbean and south of Hispaniola through the week.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to
moderate in the NW Caribbean. Moderate NE to E swell over the
Tropical N Atlantic is expected to continue into next week. Active
weather across the western Caribbean will end by tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from near Bermuda to near the border of
Georgia and Florida. Gentle SE-S winds prevail between Florida
and Bermuda north of 27N. Moderate to fresh NE-E trades are
occurring south of 27N, through the Bahamas. Seas are 2 to 4 ft
north of 27N and west of 70W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere between 65W
and the Bahamas.

A cold front extends south-southwestward from a 1018 mb low near
31N51W to 29N50W to 24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring north of 25N between 48W and 52W. Fresh winds and 6 to
9 ft seas are in this area. A strong 1035 mb high pressure
centered over the Azores is dominating the east-central Atlantic.
Fresh to strong trades are from 24N to 31N between the coast of
Africa to 30W through the Canary Islands, and from 17N to 21N
between 35W and 45W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft across these areas.
Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail
elsewhere, except gentle winds and 5 to 6 ft seas from 22N to 31N
between 51W and 55W southeast of the front mentioned above.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. The latest advisory
states that ash concentration near the volcano is low at this
time.

For the forecast west of 65W, a weak cold front will move off
northern Florida Tue before stalling and retreating northwest
through Tue night. Otherwise, weak high pressure will prevail
through the middle of the week. Another weak cold front may move
off northern Florida Thu. Moderate NE to E swell east of 70W will
persist through the early part of the week.

Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue over
the NE Atlantic, north of 25N and east of 35W, including near the
Canary Islands, for the next few days.

$$
Lewitsky
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