[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ
extends west-southwestward from off the Guinea coast at 08N15W to
04N26W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the
ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 14W and 39W.

Convergent surface winds N of the E Pacific monsoon trough are
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
SW Caribbean Basin, including Panama and W Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers over the W
central and SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. A surface
ridge extends westward from a 1031 mb high over N Florida to the
central Gulf. This feature is dominating the region with gentle
to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will shift slowly ESE across
the basin through Sun, supporting tranquil conditions for the next
few days. A weak cold front is expected to briefly enter the NW
Gulf late Mon and could linger through midweek. The next front is
expected to enter the NW Gulf Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the W central basin near the Honduras
coastline, and scattered showers across Jamaica and W Haiti.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the basin. Tightening gradient between the Bermuda High and
monsoon trough across Panama and W Colombia is creating fresh to
strong ENE trades with 8 to 11-ft seas over the central and S
central basin. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E trades and seas
of 6 to 8 ft are present across the N central basin. Gentle to
moderate ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high will maintain moderate to
fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean into next week. Fresh
winds will also pulse to strong at night off Colombia and the Gulf
of Venezuela, as well as south of Hispaniola. NE winds will also
pulse to strong near the Windward Passage early this morning and
again tonight. Moderate NE to E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic
is expected to continue for the next several days. Active weather
will continue across the W Caribbean through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough reaches southwestward from a 1018 mb low SW of
Bermuda at 30N55W to N of the Leeward Islands at 20N61W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring S and SE of the low, N of 22N
between 47W and 58W. Two surface troughs embedded within the ENE
trades are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
from the Equator to 11N between 40W and the French Guiana/Suriname
coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section of additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A strong 1035 mb Azores High is dominating the E central Atlantic
with fresh to moderate ENE to ESE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft N
of 13N between the NW African coast and 50W. From 06N to 13N,
gentle to moderate NE to E trades with seas of 6 to 8 ft are
evident between the Senegal/Guinea coast and Windward Islands/S
American coast. N of 13N between 50W and 62W/Leeward Islands,
gentle to moderate E to SE trades with seas at 5 to 7 ft are
present. Light to gentle NE to E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft
exist N of the Greater Antilles between 62W and the
Bahamas/Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to SE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the highs over N Florida and near
Bermuda will slowly build S and E into the area through Mon,
supporting generally tranquil conditions over the SW N Atlantic
for the next several days. Moderate NE to E swell over the
Atlantic waters E of 70W is expected for the next several days.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected offshore of the N
Florida waters Wed.

$$

Chan
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