[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010955
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Senegal and extends to near 10N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N17W to 05N35W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 09N between 15W and 25W. Similar convection is
noted from 03N to 06N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
fresh E to SE winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula, between a
trough over the southwest Gulf and 1024 mb high pressure centered
over the southern Georgia. Based on data from buoy 42055 in the
southwest Gulf, seas are estimate to be 3 to 5 ft in this area. Elsewhere,
this pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds
across the basin. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the basin and no
significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the northern Gulf
will dominate the basin through the week. This high pressure will
move eastward through the week, returning the east to southeast
flow across the northwest Gulf by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough reaches from the western tip of Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Weak low pressure along this trough is dissipating as it
moves toward the Yucatan coast. Elsewhere, the pattern is
influenced by the subtropical ridge north of the area and lower
pressure along the monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean
through the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted along the monsoon trough due to trade wind
convergence. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds off
Colombia, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere over the
central Caribbean, to include in the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and off Cabo Beata off the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Farther east, a trough extends roughly along 64W Margarita Island
and Saint Martin. Scattered showers are active along the trough
south of 15N. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
generally moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean
through the end of the week and into the weekend, with fresh to
strong winds pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela,
mainly at night. Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible
over the Windward Passage and Mona Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 27N60W then becomes stationary
to 24N68W. The front disrupts the subtropical ridge between strong
1036 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands and 1023 mb high
pressure between the Carolinas and Bermuda. Scattered moderate
showers and thunderstorms are observed within 180 nm east of the
front north of 29N. A recent altimeter satellite pass confirmed
seas reaching 8 ft in NE swell within 90 nm west of the front
north of 30N. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted west of 55W,
except for light breezes under the ridge north of 28N west of 65W.
Gentle E to SE winds persist ahead of the front between 45W and
55W north of 20N with 4 to 6 ft seas. Fresh trade winds are noted
south of 20N between 45W and 55W, with 8 to 10 ft seas in E swell.
East of 45W, fresh to strong NE to E winds dominate the eastern
and central Atlantic, south of the high pressure over the Azores,
with seas 8 to 12 ft.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak trough will move off
northeast Florida tonight, then lift northeast of the area. A
ridge will build along 27N/28N through Fri, supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds south of 22N by late Fri.

$$
Christensen
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