[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Ida is centered near 35.5N86.2W
at 31/2100. Please read the latest WPC Public Advisory at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=IDA,
and the Storm Summary Message at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html, for more
details.

Tropical Depression Kate is centered near 24.6N 50.9W at 31/2100
UTC or 760 nm NE of the Leeward Islands moving N at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm east semicircle
of Kate. Kate is forecast to remain at the same intensity while
moving on a north northwest track through early Thursday, then
will start on a more northward track through Friday. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Newly developed Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near
11.2N 21.1W at 31/2100 UTC or 290 nm SE of the Southernmost Cabo
Verde Islands moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 06N to 14N between 20W and 26W. The latest forecast
has the system moving westward for the next 36 h or so, followed
by a gradual turn toward the west- northwest and northwest by
the end of the period. The disturbance is forecast to become a
tropical storm in 12 h and reach hurricane intensity in 48-60 h.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are noted within
90 nm east of the tropical wave from 08N to 11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated convection is noted
within 30 nm of the wave axis south of 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N16W to 10N18W. It resumes west of TD Twelve near 10N23W
to 05.5N43W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N43W to 05N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between
28W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N
between 45W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over
the NE Gulf. High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh
to locally strong winds prevail over the north central Gulf.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8
ft range over the area of strong winds and 3-5 ft elsewhere,
except for 1-2 ft over the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong south to southwest winds over
the north-central Gulf will shift to the NE Gulf tonight through
Wed night and to northeast of the Gulf Thu ahead of a frontal
boundary. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region
producing mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds through Fri.
Pulsing fresh winds are expected northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula at night through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean and 3-5 ft
elsewhere over the central and western Caribbean. Over the
eastern Caribbean, seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Atlantic waters north of the area and lower pressure
over northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh trade winds
over the south- central and northwest Caribbean. Similar wind
speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the
weekend. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next couple of
days as it moves westward or west- northwestward toward Central
America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further
development of this system. This could will bring some increase
in winds and seas first over the southwestern Caribbean and then
over the northwestern Caribbean Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see special features above for more on TD Kate and more on
recently developed TD Twelve. Elsewhere, A surface trough extends
over the waters north of Kate from 31N46W to 28N58W to 30N70W.
High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 30N29W. Aside from
conditions associated to Kate and TD Twelve, light to gentle
winds dominate much of the forecast waters. The exception is over
the eastern Atlantic where the pressure gradient between the area
of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is
supporting moderate to fresh winds between these features. Seas
are generally in the 3-6 ft range over the open waters and 2 ft
or less west of the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 65W, a weak pressure gradient will
prevail through tonight with mainly light to gentle winds. Fresh
to strong southwest winds are expected just off northeastern
Florida on Wed ahead of a frontal boundary forecast to clip the
northwestern waters late Thu into Fri and weaken as it moves
across the northern waters W of 70W Sat through Sun night.

$$
AL
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