[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311822
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Aug 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Ida was in NE Mississippi.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 27N northward in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 23N northward in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
strong is inland, in the Gulf of Mexico to 32N in Florida, SE
Alabama, and in SW Georgia from 29.5N to 32N between 84W and 86W.
Please, read the latest WPC Public Advisory at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=IDA,
and the Storm Summary Message at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html, for more
details.

The center of Tropical Depression Kate, at 31/1500 UTC, is near
23.5N 50.8W, or about 900 nm to the ESE of Bermuda. Kate is moving
N, or 010 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30
knots with gusts to 40 knots. A surface trough, the remnant of a
cold front, is along 31N47W 28N59W 31N70W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 400 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant, and within 300 nm of the center everywhere else
except for the west quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1006 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 10.5N. Precipitation:
scattered strong is within 250 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within
600 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 09N to 11N between 14W and 16W. The
precipitation pattern continues to show signs of organization. The
environmental conditions are conducive for additional development
of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so, while the low pressure center moves westward to
west-northwestward 10 to 15 mph. The formation chance through 48
hours is high. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook, at: www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong is within 100 nm to the east of the tropical wave from
10.5N to 11.5N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 330 nm to
the east of the tropical wave, and within 120 nm to the west of
the tropical wave, from 07N to 12N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow is between the 68W tropical wave and the 50W tropical
wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 625 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 14N
southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N16W, through the 1006 mb low pressure center that is along
the 18W/19W tropical wave, to 10N21W 10N27W 07N38W 05N44W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N44W to 05N49W. Precipitation: no other
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite
imagery.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Precipitation that is related to T.D. IDA is given in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N98W along
the coast of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
areas that are from 20N to 25N between 93W and 101W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N to 24N
between 94W and 95W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico, that is away from the 23N98W cyclonic circulation center.

Fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the north central
Gulf of Mexico will shift to the NE Gulf, from tonight through
Wednesday night, and to northeast of the Gulf on Thursday, in
advance of a frontal boundary. A ridge will dominate the Gulf of
Mexico, producing mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds
through Friday. Pulsing fresh winds are expected to the northwest
of the Yucatan Peninsula, at night through Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some
slow development of this system is possible by the end of the
week, if the system remains over water. This system is expected to
move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward 5 to 10 mph,
toward Central America. Please, refer to the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
is along 10N/11N from 77W, beyond Costa Rica, and into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level trough passes through the
Bahamas to Honduras. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 17N southward between 72W and 85W.

The pressure gradient, between a ridge east of Florida and lower
pressure in northern Colombia, will support moderate to fresh
trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea. Similar wind
speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night. A broad area
of low pressure is forecast to develop in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Some slow development of this
system is possible by the end of the week, if the system remains
over water. This system is expected to move gradually west-
northwestward or northwestward toward Central America. This will
bring some increase in winds and seas, first in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, and then in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, from
Wednesday through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Information that is about T.D. KATE is given in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section. A surface trough, the remnant of a cold front,
is along 31N47W 28N59W 31N70W, about 340 nm to the NNW of
T.D. KATE. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
between T.D. KATE and the surface trough, between 42W and 56W.

An upper level trough is along 30N70W, on top of the Bahamas, to
Honduras in Central America. Precipitation: isolated moderate
covers the areas that are from the Greater Antilles northward from
70W westward.

A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N27W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
northward from 40W eastward.

A weak pressure gradient will prevail through tonight with mainly
light to gentle winds. Fresh to strong southwest winds are
expected just off northeastern Florida on Wednesday, in advance of
a frontal boundary that is forecast to clip the northwestern
waters, from late Thursday into Friday.

$$
mt
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