[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 310233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

Kate is a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical cyclone.
Satellite images show an exposed low-level center with a few patches
of deep convection on the system's east side.  The latest Dvorak
classifications range from 25-35 kt, and the initial intensity is
held at a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately,
ASCAT missed the circulation this evening.

Strong west-northwesterly shear of about 30 kt is expected to
persist into early Tuesday, and that could cause some weakening in
the short term.  Although the shear is expected to lessen after
that, Kate will be moving into a drier and more stable airmass. None
of the intensity models show much strengthening, and the global
models suggest that Kate could dissipate sometime within the next
couple of days.  The official forecast is again nudged downward and
generally shows little change in strength during the next 4 days.
Kate, or its remnants, are likely to merge with an extratropical low
and associated front in 4 to 5 days.

The tropical storm has moved little during the past few hours, but a
12-hour motion yields an estimate of 360/5 kt.  The storm is moving
toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a deep-layer low over the
North Atlantic, and that motion should continue into Tuesday.  By
Wednesday, mid-level ridging building to the northeast of the system
should cause it to turn northwestward.  However, another trough
moving eastward over the western Atlantic is expected to cause Kate
to turn northward again toward the end of the week.  The NHC track
forecast follows the various consensus aids and is similar to the
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 22.7N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 23.6N  50.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 24.8N  50.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 26.1N  51.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 27.6N  52.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 29.1N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 30.4N  54.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 33.9N  54.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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