[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ida is centered near 31.0N 90.8W at 30/0900 UTC
or 80 nm SSW of Jackson Mississippi moving N at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Sea heights near the SE Louisiana
coast are as high as 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong
convection prevail N of 26N between 86W-94W. On the
forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over
southeastern Louisiana early this morning and move into southwestern
Mississippi later this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over
central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and
move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Please, read the
latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4, for
more details. Please, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian is centered near 38.1N 41.9W at
30/0300 UTC or 710 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at
23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted N of 30N between 35W-47W. This general
motion is expected to continue through Monday, followed by a turn
to the north, then northeast Monday night into Tuesday.
Please, read the last NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the last
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 20.8N 50.6W at 30/0900
UTC or 670 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving N at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 45W and 51W. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days.
Slow strengthening is forecast to begin in the latter part of this
week. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves
offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle or latter part of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
There is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48
hours and a high chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from 18N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 12N between 26W and 31W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 17N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
11N to 15N between 36W and 45W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 19N southward across
the Lesser Antilles into NE Venezuela, and moving W around 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over Venezuela.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 19N southward
across W Panama into the E Pacific, and moving W near 10 to 15
kt. Enhanced by the E end of the Pacific monsoon trough, scattered
to numerous moderate convection are present over Panama, N
Colombia, and the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 73W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W through
a 1011 mb low pressure at 15N28W to 10N43W. The ITCZ then
stretches from 09N48W to 10N58W. Numerous strong convection is
noted S of the monsoon trough along the African coast from 05N-
17N and E of 21W. Scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features Section above for information on
T.S. Ida.

Outside of the effects of Ida, fresh to locally strong SE to S
winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft dominate the central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ida will continue moving
northward while weakening. Fresh to strong winds associated with
Ida will continue to affect the north-central gulf today. Moderate
to fresh return flow will dominate the basin afterwards
continuing through Wed. Winds will further diminish to gentle to
locally moderate by mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on
convection.

Fresh to strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue
across the S central basin N of Colombia today. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected through
Tue, except for locally strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean today. A tropical wave will enhance winds in the SW
Caribbean Mon evening through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds
will dominate the basin through the remainder of the forecast
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the sections above for details on Post-Tropical Storm Julian,
Tropical Depression Ten, and the tropical waves moving across the
basin.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a
cold front near 31N are found N of 30N between 35W-47W. This
frontal boundary is related to Julian. An upper-level low near
25N40W is triggering scattered showers from 22N-28N between 31W-
41W.

A surface ridge curves westward from a 1020 mb Azores high to a
1021 mb Bermuda high. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas at
6 to 8 ft related to the cold front are found N of 29N between
39W and 66W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
present from 10N to 29N between 25W and the Florida-Georgia
coast/Lesser Antilles. Moderate with locally fresh winds and seas
at 4 to 5 ft dominate waters near the Canary Islands N of 20N
between the NW African coast and 25W. Light to gentle SE to SW
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, a weak pressure gradient will prevail
through Wed, which will result in light to gentle variable winds.
Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over NE Florida offshore
waters by Wed night ahead of a cold front moving E just N of the
area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cover the offshore waters N
of the Bahamas through Thu.

$$
ERA
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