[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

Updated Special Features section below

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Category Three Hurricane Ida is moving inland, centered near
29.9N 90.5W at 30/0000 UTC or 20 nm WSW of New Orleans, Louisiana
and moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 944
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt.
Sea heights near the SE Louisiana coast are as high as 26 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 80 nm of the
center, with scattered moderate convection across S and central
Louisiana and Mississippi, and near the Florida Big Bend area;
including adjacent waters. Ida is beginning to weaken as it moves
farther inland but should remain a hurricane through Mon afternoon as
it turns toward the NNE into Mississippi. Please, read the latest
NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4, for
more details. Please, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts.

Tropical Storm Julian is centered near 37.3N 42.8W at 30/0000 UTC
or about 565 nm W of the Azores and moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
has increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted NE, E and SE of the center from 35N to 40N
between 39W and 43W. Julian is forecast to remain a tropical
storm through Mon, accelerating NNE before become absorbed by a
cold front and transitioning to a post tropical storm Mon night,
well east of the Canadian Maritime. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml,
and the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 19.8N 50.6W at 30/0000
UTC or 650 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands and moving N at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen mainly E of the center 19N to
21N between 48W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
farther S from 16N to 19N between 47W and 50W. Little change in
strengthen is expected through Mon but Ten could become a
tropical storm toward midweek. It is expected to continue on a
general northward track with a slight decrease in speed through
midweek. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for
more details.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves
offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle or latter part of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
There is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48
hours and a high chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 16N between 23W and 29W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 16N between 36W and 43W.

Another Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 20N
southward, moving W around 10 kt. Convection previously associated
with this wave has diminished.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward,
extending into the far eastern Pacific, into the Gulf of Panama.
This wave is moving W around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 10N, generally S of the eastern
extension of the Monsoon Trough. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted from 10N to 12N W of 80W.

A tropical wave that had been very near the southern Bay of
Campeche has now moved west and fully into the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough the coastal plains of Senegal near 10N15W to
11N25W to 11N38W. The ITCZ is then stretches from 10N41W to 10N51W
to 12N60W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 47W and 51W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of the African coast
between 10W and 18W, from 07N to 10N between 18W and 23W, from 12N
to 14N between 36W and 40W, and from 04N to 10N between 51W and
55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features Section above for information on
Hurricane Ida.

Outside of the effects of Ida, fresh SE wind dominate the SE and
south-central Gulf, with light and variable winds over the western
and SW Gulf. Seas average 3 to 6 ft.

Hurricane Ida near 29.5N 90.6W 938 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 9
kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Ida will move
inland to 30.7N 90.9W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 32.4N 90.7W Mon afternoon, move inland and
weaken to a tropical depression near 34.0N 89.4W Tue morning,
inland to 35.6N 87.2W Tue afternoon, inland to 37.1N 84.2W Wed
morning, and become extratropical and move to 38.6N 80.5W Wed
afternoon. Fresh to strong winds associated with Ida will continue
to affect the north-central gulf through Mon early in the
evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin
afterwards continuing through Wed. Winds will further diminish to
gentle to locally moderate by Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is dominating much of the basin. See Tropical Waves
section above for details on a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean.
Scattered trade wind convection is noted S of 14N between 66W and
71W. Widespread fresh trades are occurring, with some locally
strong winds occurring off the NE coast of Venezuela.

Moderate to fresh winds are expected through Tue, except for
locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras through early Mon. A tropical wave will enhance winds in
the SW Caribbean Mon evening through Tue. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse again in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through early
Wed as the tropical wave moves across Central America. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will dominate the basin the remainder period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Julian and Tropical Depression Ten.

A mid and upper level low pressure center is producing scattered
moderate convection from 20N to 28N between 34W and 45W. Another
mid and upper level low pressure centered near 29N56W is
weakening and no longer producing significant convection.

A 1022 mb high pressure has emerged off the coast of the Carolinas
and is centered near 32N78W. Another high of 1021 mb is centered
near 31N25W. With high pressure the dominating the winds over most
of the basin, outside of the tropical cyclones and waves, winds
are generally gentle and variable, although moderate trades are
dominating waters between 10N and 25N, E of 40W. Seas average 3 to
6 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, a weak pressure gradient will prevail
through Wed, which will result in light to gentle variable winds.
Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over NE Florida offshore
waters by Wed night ahead of a cold front moving E just N of the
area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cover the offshore waters N
of the Bahamas through Thu.

$$

Chan
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