[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 291433
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

The center of the depression has become a little more exposed to the
northwest of the deep convection during the past few hours as a
result of continued 25-30 kt of northwesterly shear.  The latest
Dvorak estimates are T2.5 from TAFB and T1.0/2.0 from SAB, so the
initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The system is expected to continue
moving through a region of strong northwesterly to westerly shear
for the next 2 days or so, and little to no strengthening is
anticipated during that time.  However, if the convection is able
to remain fairly close to the center, then the system could eke
into tropical storm status at any time.  After 48 hours, a
significant decrease in shear, along with warm waters of 27-28
degrees Celsius, should allow for a steady strengthening trend.  The
NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward on days 3 through 5,
although much of the guidance is even higher, suggesting that
further adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories.

The depression is moving northward (350/10 kt) through a break in
the ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending south of
Newfoundland over the central Atlantic.  This trough, along with a
strengthening mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic on days 3-5,
are expected to keep the cyclone on a curvy northward track during
the entire forecast period.  There is high confidence in the track
forecast given low spread among the track models, and the NHC
official forecast generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 18.8N  50.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 20.0N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 21.4N  50.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 22.7N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 24.1N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 25.6N  49.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 27.4N  49.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 30.6N  50.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 33.5N  50.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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