[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Ida is centered near 28.0N 89.1W at 29/0900 UTC or 70
nm S of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. The maximum sea
heights are 38 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
N of 25N between 86W-91W. Outer rainbands are found across the
NE Gulf, including the Florida Big Band area. On the forecast track,
the center of Ida will continue moving across the north-central
Gulf of Mexico this morning, and make landfall along the coast of
southeastern Louisiana within the hurricane warning area this
afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland
over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and
Monday night. Rapid weakening is expected after Ida makes
landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml
for more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts.

Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 17.3N 49.8W at 29/0900
UTC or 690 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving N at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The maximum sea heights
are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly E
of the center from 13N-19N between 44W-50W. Some slight strengthening
is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical
storm in the next 24 hours. Little change in strength is expected
thereafter through early this week. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 34.0N 48.6W at
29/0900 UTC or 1070 nm W of the Azores moving NE at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The maximum sea heights
are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 31N-
40N between 40W-50W. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the
depression is expected to become to a tropical storm later today.
The system is then forecast to become post-tropical by Monday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 19N southward across
the E Cape Verde Islands, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
showers are noted from 08N to 13N between 19W and 25W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 17N southward and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 11N to
16N between 33W and 40W.

A Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N59W to 03N64W,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring across the southern portion of the wave currently moving
over Venezuela.

A Carribbean tropical wave is near 77W from E Cuba southward to
Colombia, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Much drier air at mid and
upper levels is hindering any significant convection near this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 05N40W to 07N48W. Aside
from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above,
no other activity is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane
Ida, which is a major hurricane expected to make landfall over
SE Louisiana today.

Convergent moderate to fresh SE to S winds feeding toward
Hurricane Ida are triggering scattered showers across the E
Gulf, including the Gulf coast of central and S Florida, and the
Keys. Seas are ranging from 5 to 8 ft in the area. Subsidence
along with surface ridging W of Ida is promoting light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Hurricane Ida will move to 29.1N 90.3W this
afternoon, inland to 30.6N 91.1W Mon morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 32.2N 91.0W Mon afternoon, move
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.8N 90.0W Tue
morning, inland to 35.4N 87.9W Tue afternoon, and inland to 36.7N
85.2W Wed morning. Ida will move inland over 38.9N 78.9W by early
Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea.

Modest convergent SE winds are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Basin, including W
Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Convergent trade winds are coupling
with southerly wind shear aloft to cause scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the SW basin, N of Venezuela. Fresh
to strong trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present across the S
central basin, N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades and seas
of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected through
the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
tropical depressions Ten and Eleven.

An upper-level low near 23N43W is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 20N-27N between 37W-43W. A surface
trough extends southwestward from Tropical Depression Eleven to
near 28N58W. Another trough is analyzed from 32N33W to 29N39W. No
significant convection is noted with these troughs at this time.

A surface ridge meanders west-southwestward from a 1020 mb Azores
high across S of Bermuda to N Florida. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 3 to 4 ft are noted N of 22N between 28W and Georgia-
Florida coast. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are
present from 12N to 22N between 51W and the Lesser Antilles.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist near the
Canary Islands N of 21N between the NW African coast and 28W.
Other than near Tropical Depression Ten, gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, surface ridging will extend
southward into the SW N Atlantic through tonight supporting
gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak pressure gradient will
prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, which will
result in light to gentle variable winds.

$$
ERA
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