[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Ida with an eye visible on the latest IR satellite
imagery is Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
It is centered near 27.2N 88.0W at 29/0300 UTC or 125 nm SSE of
the mouth of The Mississippi River and moving NW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. The maximum sea heights
are 34 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted near
the center from 26N to 29N between 86W and 91W. Outer rainbands
with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are found
across the N central and NE Gulf, including the Florida Big Band
area. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will continue
moving across the central and N Gulf of Mexico tonight and early
Sunday, and make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the
hurricane warning area Sun afternoon or evening. Ida is then
forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and
western Mississippi on Mon and Mon night. More intensification is
still likely through Sun morning and Ida is expected to become a
Category 4 hurricane at landfall Sun afternoon or evening. Rapid
weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml
for more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts.

Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 16.6N 49.9W at 29/0300
UTC or 680 nm E of the Leeward Islands and moving N at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The maximum sea heights
are near 10 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen mainly E of the center from 14N to 18N between 45W and
50W. On the forecast track, the depression will continue in a
general northward motion over the next few days. Some slight
strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm on Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 33.0N
49.7W at 29/0300 UTC or 1145 nm W of the Azores and moving NE at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The maximum
sea heights are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is seen
mainly E and NE of the center from 32N to 135N between 47W and
50W. On the forecast track, the depression will continue in a
general northeastward motion with a increase in speed over the
next couple of days, before turning N early next week. Some slight
strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm on Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 19N southward across
the E Cape Verde Islands, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 19W and 23W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 17N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
10N to 13N between 33W and 37W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from 18N southward
into Guyana, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring across Guyana.

A Carribbean tropical wave is near 76W from W Cuba southward to
Venezuela, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Much drier air at mid and
upper levels is hindering any significant convection near this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 12N28W. The ITCZ then continues from 12N28W to 10N36W,
and farther W from 10N39W to 08N45W. Scattered moderate convection
is present near and S of the ITCZ from 04N to 09N between 41W and
48W. No significant convection is found near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Category Two
Hurricane Ida, which is forecast to become a major hurricane over
the N central Gulf on Sun.

Convergent moderate to fresh SE to S winds feeding toward
Hurricane Ida are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the SE and E central Gulf, including the Gulf
coast of central and S Florida, and the Keys. Seas are ranging
from 5 to 8 ft in the area. Subsidence along with surface ridging
W and SW of Ida is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 2
to 5 ft for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, hurricane Ida is centered near 27.2N 88.0W 964
mb at 11 PM EDT or 0300 UTC, and moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Ida will move to
28.4N 89.4W Sun morning, inland to 29.9N 90.7W Sun evening, move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.4N 91.2W Mon
morning, move over land and weaken to a tropical depression near
33.1N 90.6W Mon evening, inland to 34.8N 89.1W Tue morning, and
inland to 36.3N 86.7W Tue evening. Ida will move inland over 38.6N
80.6W late Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea.

Modest convergent SE winds are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Basin, including W
Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Convergent trade winds are coupling
with southerly wind shear aloft to cause scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the SW basin, N of Venezuela. Fresh
to strong trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present across the S
central basin, N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades and seas
of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected through
the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh winds will pulse at
night in the Gulf of Honduras Sun to Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
tropical depressions Ten and Eleven.

An upper-level low near 23N44W is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 25N between 37W and 44W. A
surface trough extends southwestward from Tropical Depression
Eleven to near 26N55W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident near this feature from 25N to 29N
between 56W and 60W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection.

A surface ridge meanders west-southwestward from a 1022 mb Azores
high across S of Bermuda to N Florida. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 3 to 4 ft are seen N of 22N between 28W and Georgia-
Florida coast. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft
are present from 12N to 22N between 51W and the Lesser Antilles.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist near the
Canary Islands N of 21N between the NW African coast and 28W.
Other than near Tropical Depression Ten, gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, surface ridging will extend
southward into the SW N Atlantic through Sun night supporting
gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak pressure gradient will
prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, which will
result in light to gentle variable winds.

$$

Chan
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