[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Aug 28 22:28:02 CDT 2021
WTUS84 KMOB 290327
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-291130-
Hurricane Ida Local Statement Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL092021
1027 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
**IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Mobile Central, and
Mobile Coastal
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Inland,
George, Greene, Mobile Inland, Perry, Stone, Washington, and
Wayne
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 240 miles south of Mobile AL or about 230 miles
south-southwest of Pensacola FL
- 27.2N 88.0W
- Storm Intensity 105 mph
- Movement Northwest or 325 degrees at 16 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
At 10 PM CDT, Hurricane Ida was approaching the very warm central
Gulf of Mexico waters, moving northwest at 16 mph. This general
motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast
on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over
the central Gulf of Mexico this evening and continue to progress
northwest, making landfall along the northern Gulf coast Sunday
afternoon.
Rapid strengthening is forecast tonight. Ida is expected to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern
Gulf coast Sunday. Currently, hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 140 miles. Ida is forecast to increase in size as it
approaches the coast with the area of tropical storm force winds
likely expanding further out to the east from the center before
landfall.
Ida will likely bring rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with
isolated higher amounts of 12 or more inches, especially over
southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama, Sunday into Monday and
potentially extending into Tuesday. This is likely to result in flash,
urban, small stream, and river flooding over portions of our area.
Depending on the exact track of Ida after landfall, tropical storm
force conditions, especially in frequent gusts, could occur over
interior southeast Mississippi and portions of southwest and coastal
Alabama.
Swells have begun to impact our portion of the Gulf Coast. 2 to 4
feet of coastal water rises above normally dry ground are expected
along the beaches, sounds, and the shoreline of Mobile Bay. 1 to 3
feet of water rise is possible further east into the western Florida
Panhandle. Surf heights are expected to increase to be between 5-10
feet tonight through Sunday evening. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, wave run up, and dangerous rip currents. Waves
and swells are likely to remain elevated into Monday and potentially
Tuesday as strong south to southwest winds persist over the marine
areas.
The tornado threat will also begin to increase from late tonight into
Sunday across southeastern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama, and
portions of the western Florida Panhandle as the outer rainbands on
the east and northeast side of Ida move into and across the area.
This tornado threat will likely persist and expand across much of the
region Sunday night and into Monday.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across southeast Mississippi and portions of
southwest Alabama. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across the remaining portions of the local area.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential
impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal Alabama and adjoining Mobile Bay shoreline.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.
Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal sections of the western Florida Panhandle.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.
Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.
If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 4 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
$$
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