[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282226
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Ida, now a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale, is centered near 26.2N 87.0W at 28/2100 UTC or 210 nm
SSE of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. The maximum sea heights
are 34 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
noted from 24N to 27N between 84W and 88W. To the east, a powerful
outer rainband with numerous strong convection stretches from 23N
to 28N between 82W and 84W.




On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move over the central Gulf
of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is then expected to make
landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane
warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of
Louisiana or western Mississippi later Monday. Rapid strengthening
is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to
be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida
makes landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml
for more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts.

Tropical Depression Ten is near 14.8N 50.1W at 28/1500 UTC or 695
nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted from 12N-18N between 45W-50W. On the forecast track, the
depression is moving toward the north and this general motion is
forecast to continue during the next several days. Some slight
strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of
low pressure located over the central Atlantic has become a
little better organized overnight. Environmental conditions are
expected to be only marginally conducive for further development.
However, a tropical depression could still form within the next
couple of days. By midweek, the system is forecast to be absorbed
by a frontal system. The disturbance is expected to drift
eastward through today, then accelerate northeastward Sunday
toward the central north Atlantic. This system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has moved off the African coast along
16W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 11N-17N along the coast
of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea E of 20W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 17N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. This wave is in proximity of T.D. Ten
mentioned in the Special Features section above. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N-16N between 53W-60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 20N southward across
Hispaniola to N Venezuela, and moving W near 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted across the southern portion of the
wave currently extending across Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 15N17W
to 10N29W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N38W to 09N48W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ
from 04N to 09N between 37W to 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane
Ida, which is forecast to become a major hurricane over the
central Gulf.

A surface trough extends from 28N92W to 19N90W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails across the northern portion of the
trough north of 25N to the northern coast of Louisiana and SE
Texas. This activity is aided by an upper-level low over the NW
Gulf near 25N93W. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of
4 to 6 ft are evident across NE Gulf. Light to gentle E to ESE
winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the western Gulf. In the
southeast Gulf including the Straits of Florida SE winds are
moderate to fresh with seas 8 to 12 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Ida near 24.8N 86.1W 984 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90
kt. Ida will move to 26.3N 87.9W this evening, 28.0N 89.8W Sun
morning, 29.4N 91.0W Sun evening, move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 31.0N 91.5W Mon morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical depression near 32.7N 91.0W Mon evening, and
inland to 34.4N 89.8W Tue morning. Ida will move inland near
36.8N 85.3W early Wed. Light to gentle variable winds are
expected in the SW gulf and far western basin through Mon.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh return flow will establish
across most of the basin Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the Caribbean Sea.

Convergent fresh to strong SE to S winds feeding toward Hurricane
Ida over the SE Gulf of Mexico are triggering scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across W Cuba and W of Jamaica. Seas
across the N central and NW Caribbean Basin are in the range of 7
to 10 ft, including the Yucatan Channel. Please see the Special
Features section above for more information on Ida.

Outside of the influence of Ida, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from the ABC Islands north along the
Lesser Antilles. Dry Moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft
prevail across much of the basin. The exception is light to
gentle winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft along the W edge of the basin.

For the forecast, weather conditions in the NW Caribbean
associated with Ida will dissipate today. Moderate to fresh
winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast period, except
for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through
the weekend. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night
in the Gulf of Honduras Sun to Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on T.D.
Ten and the low pressure that has the potential for tropical
development. Also, refer to the Tropical Waves section above for
more details on these features.

Convergent E to ESE winds well NE of Hurricane Ida is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida
coast and the NW Bahamas. An upper-level trough SE of Bermuda
near 31N51W is coupling with a surface low in the vicinity to
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 26N between 47W
and 52W.

A surface ridge near the coast of North Carolina extends
southeast Across the western Atlantic to near 29N69W. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are found N of 27n between 22W
and 60W. To the far east, a surface trough is noted extending
from 31N29W to 25N36W. A 1022 mb high pressure is center near
31N22W with gentle to moderate winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are
found in the region. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7
ft are present from 10N to 18N between 54W and the Lesser
Antilles, and also near the Canary Islands N of 18N between the
NW African coast and 22W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at
6 to 7 ft exist from the Equator to 06N between 35W and the S
American coast. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, surface ridging will extend
southward into the SW N Atlantic through Sun night supporting
gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak pressure gradient will
prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, which will
result in light to gentle variable winds. Otherwise, fresh to
locally strong winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during
the evening hours through tonight.

$$
KONARIK
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