[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 281017
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281830-

Hurricane Ida Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL092021
517 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

...IDA INTENSIFYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WHILE CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Washington and Wayne

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
      Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for George, Greene, Perry,
      Stone, Washington, and Wayne

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 490 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 460 miles
      south-southeast of Pensacola FL
    - 24.0N 85.2W
    - Storm Intensity 80 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 4 AM CDT, the center of Hurricane Ida was over the very warm Gulf of Mexico
waters as it moves towards the northwest at 16 mph. This general motion should
continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern and central Gulf of
Mexico through tonight and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast
late Sunday.

Rapid strengthening is forecast and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous
major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast Sunday. Currently,
hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. Ida is forecast to
increase in size as it approaches the coast with the area of tropical storm
force winds likely expanding further out to the east from the center before landfall.

Ida will likely bring rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher amounts
of 12 or more inches, especially over southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama, Sunday
into Monday and potentially extending into Tuesday. This is likely to result in flash,
urban, small stream, and river flooding over portions of our area.

Depending on the exact track of Ida after landfall, tropical storm force conditions,
especially in frequent gusts, could occur over interior southeast Mississippi and
portions of southwest and coastal Alabama.

Swells will begin reaching our portion of the Gulf Coast coast by this evening.
Two to four feet of coastal water rises above normally dry ground are expected along
the beaches, sounds, and the shoreline of Mobile Bay. One to three feet of water rise
possible further east into the western Florida Panhandle. Surf heights are expected to
increase to be between 8-12 feet tonight into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, wave run up, and dangerous rip currents. Waves and swells are
likely to remain elevated into Monday and potentially Tuesday as strong south to southwest
winds persist over the marine areas.

The tornado threat will also begin to increase on Sunday across southeastern Mississippi,
southwestern Alabama, and portions of the western Florida Panhandle as the outer rainbands
on the east and northeast side of Ida move into and across the area. This tornado threat
will likely persist and expand across much of the region into Sunday night and Monday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama.
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across the remainder of interior southwest and
south central Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south central
Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential impacts
include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal alabama and adjoining Mobile Bay shoreline.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal sections of the western Florida Panhandle.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south central
Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 11 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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